长江经济带人口—土地—产业非农化协调发展的时空特征及其驱动因素

SPATIO-TEMPORAL COORDINATED CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF POPULATION-LAND-INDUSTRY NON-AGRICULTURALIZATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

关键词:  人口—土地—产业非农化  协调发展  时空特征  地理探测器  长江经济带  驱动因素

Key words:  population-land-industry non-agriculturalization  coordinated development  spatio-temporal characteristics  geographic detector  Yangtze River Economic Belt  driving factors

摘要:

目的 为了解决城乡要素流动不顺畅、明确区域人口—土地—产业非农化发展状况，实现区域协调发展与城乡融合的目的。方法 文章以长江经济带110个地级市为例，运用核密度分析、地理探测器及空间计量模型，对人口—土地—产业非农化协调发展的时空特征及其驱动因素进行了系统分析。结果 时间上，2006—2016年长江经济带人口—土地—产业非农化协调度呈现明显的增长趋势；空间上，非农化协调发展水平呈现条块状分布特征，从东向西逐步递减，协调度高值区主要分布在下游经济发达地区、省会城市、中心城市，非农化发展不协调的城市分布在云南、贵州的部分地区。长江经济带形成了以成渝城市群、长江中游城市群、长江三角洲城市群为核心的协调度高值集聚区，极化效应明显：成都市、资阳市、眉山市、内江市为成渝城市群的极化中心，武汉市、咸宁市为长江中游城市群极化中心，南京市、无锡市、苏州市、扬州市、上海市为长江三角洲城市群的极化中心。下游地区人口—土地—产业非农化转型联动协调趋势不断增强，处于高度协调状态；中游地区人口非农化相对滞后是影响非农化协调发展的重要原因；上游地区人口非农化严重滞后于土地和产业非农化，是导致上游非农化协调度过低的直接原因。结论 经济发展水平、自然与地理区位条件、产业结构、政府决策行为是人口—土地—产业非农化协调发展的主导驱动因素，但不同因素的作用效果存在显著差异；以上研究为制定差异化的城乡要素协调发展政策提供了理论依据。

Abstract:

This article aims to probe into the development characteristics and driving factors of population-land-industry non-agriculturalization , so as to solve the problem of barrier to urban and rural factors, and promote regional coordinated development and urban-rural integration. 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was took as study area , and the kernel density analysis, geographic detector model and spatial econometric methods were employed to analyze the spatio-temporal coordinated characteristics and driving factors of population-land-industry non-agriculturalization. Results showed that: (1) In terms of time, the coordination degree of Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a significant growth trend from 2006 to 2016; In terms of space, the coordinated development level presented a strip-like distribution, which gradually decreased from east to west, highly coordinated cities were mainly distributed in the downstream developed areas, provincial capitals and central cities, and the uncoordinated cities were mainly distributed in Yunnan and Guizhou province. (2)The Yangtze River Economic Belt had formed a high-coordination concentration area with the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the core, the polarization effect was obvious: Chengdu, Ziyang, Meishan and Neijiang city were the polarization center of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration; Wuhan and Xianning city were the polarization centers of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Yangzhou, and Shanghai city were the polarization centers of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.（3）The population-land-industrial non-agricultural transformation coordination trend was increasing in the downstream region, and it was in a highly coordinated state. The non-agriculturalization of population in the middle reaches was relatively lagging behind, which was an important factor affecting the degree of non-agricultural coordination. The population non-agriculturalization in the upstream areas lagged behind land and industrial non-agriculturalization, which was the direct cause of the low coordination of upstream non-agriculturalization. To summary, economic development level, natural and geographical location conditions, industrial structure, government decision-making behavior are dominant driving factors of coordinated development of population-land-industry non-agriculturalization, but the effects of different factors are significantly different, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of differentiated policies on urban and rural factors coordinated development.