基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

RESEARCH ON CHINA CITRUS EXPORT GROWTH BASED ON TERNARY MARGINAL ANALYSIS

关键词:  出口增长  三元边际  市场扩展效应  数量效应  价格效应

Key words:  export growth  ternary marginal  market expansion effect  quantity effect  price effect

摘要:

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分，近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势，系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法，基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据，将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应，然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现，出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素，而市场扩展效应不明显；比较而言，出口价格效应相对稳定，而出口数量效应波动较大；不同时间段首要驱动因素不同，2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素，而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素；中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格，导致出口数量出现下降态势，出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场，积极开拓发达国家市场；丰富产品出口结构，弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。

Abstract:

The citrus industry is an important part of the revitalization of China's rural industries, in recent years, China citrus export has begun to face adverse trade situation. Therefore, it is significant to analyze the characteristics and regularity of citrus export growth of China. This paper used the ternary marginal analysis method, based on data on citrus exporting to 60 markets from 2002 to 2017, to decompose the export growth factors into market expansion effect, export quantity effect, and export price effect, and study the characteristics of export growth. As a result, there were four conclusions as follows. Firstly, the export price effect and export quantity effect were the most important factors driving the growth of China's citrus exports, and the market expansion effect was minimal. Secondly, in comparison, the export price effect was relatively stable, while the export quantity effect fluctuated. Thirdly, the main driving factor was different in different time periods, in which export quantity effect was the main driving factor in the period 2002-2009, while the export price effect was the main in the period 2010-2017. Fourthly, China's citrus export price continued to rise and has been higher than global average export price, which led to a decline in export volume and stagnant export growth. In future, China should deeply develop the existing export markets and actively explore the markets of developed countries,and enrich the export structure of products to offset and reduce the disadvantages of rising citrus export price.