扶贫效果、农户特征对生计策略选择的影响

IMPACT OF POVERTY ALLEVIATION EFFECTS AND FARMERS' CHARACTERISTICS ON LIVELIHOOD STRATEGY CHOICES

关键词:  扶贫效果  农户特征  生计策略  层次分析法  熵值法  Logit模型

Key words:  poverty alleviation effect  farmer characteristics  livelihood strategy  AHP method  entropy method  Logit model

摘要:

目的 2020年是全面打赢脱贫攻坚战收官之年，此背景下研究扶贫效果、农户特征对生计策略选择的影响的主要目的：一是脱贫攻坚战能否让部分农户更有意愿选择以务农为主的生计策略；二是发现具备不同特征的农户会做出何种生计策略的选择，为后续贫困治理提供决策支撑。方法 文章首先基于以人为本的马斯洛需求层次理论构建扶贫效果评价体系，综合运用层次分析法和熵值法计算扶贫效果的分值；其次，运用Logit模型研究扶贫效果、农户特征对生计策略选择的影响。结果 在其他条件不变的情况下，扶贫效果提高1%，选择以务农为主的生计策略的概率提高27.47%；增加0.067hm²（1亩）土地，选择以务农为主的生计策略的概率提高4.5%；具备进城务工技能的农户选择以务农为主要生计策略的概率比不具备进城务工技能的农户低58%；增加1个劳动力，选择以务农为主的生计策略的概率降低36%。还发现相对于传统种养（植）殖业和乡村旅游业，现代特色种养（植）殖业更吸引农户选择以务农为主的生计策略。基于稳健性考虑，采用bootstrap方法扩大样本量和加入冲击变量对Logit模型回归结果进行稳健性测试，结果基本一致。结论 扶贫效果和土地规模、外出务工技能、劳动力数量等农户特征显著影响农户生计策略的选择， 性别、年龄、社会关系对农户生计策略选择的影响不显著。

Abstract:

2020 is the year to win the all-out fight against poverty. In this context, studying the effects of poverty alleviation and farmers' characteristics on the choice of livelihood strategies has two practical purposes, the first is to find out whether poverty alleviation campaign made farmers more willing to choose the strategy of agriculture-based livelihood, and the second is to provide decision support for subsequent poverty governance, after figuring out how farmers with different characteristics choose their livelihood strategy. Based on the people-oriented Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, the evaluation system of industrial poverty alleviation effects was constructed. And AHP and entropy method were used to calculate the score of industrial poverty alleviation. Then, the Logit model was employed to study the impact of industrial poverty alleviation effect and farmers' characteristics on the choice of livelihood strategies. The results were listed as follows. Under the same conditions, when the poverty alleviation effect increased by 1%, the probability of choosing an agriculture-based livelihood strategy would increase by 27.47% accordingly. By adding 0.067 hm² (1 acre） of land, the probability of choosing an agriculture-based livelihood strategy would increase by 4.5%. Farmers who had the skills to work in cities were 58% less likely to choose an agriculture-based livelihood than farmers who did not have the skills; the probability of choosing an agriculture-based livelihood strategy was reduced by 36% when one labor force was added; it had been found that compared with traditional species (plant) aquaculture and rural tourism, the modern characteristic species (plant) aquaculture industry was more attractive to farmers in terms of choosing an agriculture-based livelihood strategy. Based on the robustness considerations, the bootstrap method and the addition of the impact variable were used to test the robustness of the Logit model regression results, and the conclusions were basically the same. In short, the effects of poverty alleviation and the characteristics of farmers, such as land size, migrant skills, and labor force, significantly affect the choice of farmers' livelihood strategies, but the effects of gender, age, and social relations on farmers' livelihood strategies are not significant.