近10年广西农业生产效率与全要素生产率时空演变与驱动因素分析

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN GUANGXI IN THE PAST 10 YEARS

关键词:  农业生产效率  全要素生产率  时空格局  农业科技

Key words:  agricultural production efficiency  total factor productivity  spatial and temporal pattern  agricultural science and technology

摘要:

目的 在全球努力实现联合国可持续发展目标背景下，综合评价近10年广西农业生产效率、农业全要素生产率及其时空演化特征，解析其驱动因子，为提高广西农业生产效率提供支持，为广西可持续发展目标评价提供依据。方法 文章基于2008—2017年广西14个地级市农业生产投入与产出数据，运用数据包络分析（DEA）、Malmquist指数和Tobit模型，评价广西农业生产效率与农业全要素生产率及其时空演变特征，解析其驱动因素。结果 （1）近10年广西农业生产效率水平较低，研究期间总体表现为DEA无效且规模收益递减；空间差异大，各市农业生产效率呈现不同的时间变化特征，仅梧州市、北海市和钦州市一直处于农业生产效率DEA有效。（2）广西农业全要素生产率（TFP）呈波动增长态势，技术进步是农业全要素生产率增长的主要驱动力；桂东北（桂林市、梧州市、贵港市）、桂南（北海市、防城港市、钦州市）是广西农业全要素生产率较高的地区。（3）农业生产效率影响因素中，耕地有效灌溉率、农业科技是促进因素，与农业生产效率呈显著正相关；单位面积化肥施用强度、政府投入、单位耕地农机动力是限制因素，与农业生产效率呈显著负相关；技术进步、纯技术效率和规模效率是农业全要素生产率提升的促进因素。结论 近10年，广西农业生产效率与全要素生产率整体较低，时空差异大；应增加农业科技投入，增强农业基础设施建设，提高规模化水平，以提升广西农业生产效率。

Abstract:

In the context of global efforts to achieve the sustainable development goals of the United Nations, this research comprehensively evaluates the agricultural production efficiency, agricultural total factor productivity and its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics in Guangxi in the past 10 years, analyzes its driving factors, provides support for improving the agricultural production efficiency of Guangxi and the evaluation of the sustainable development goals of Guangxi. Based on the input and output data of agricultural production of 14 cities in Guangxi from 2008 to 2017, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Malmquist index and Tobit model were used to evaluate the agricultural production efficiency and total factor productivity in Guangxi and their temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, and analyze the driving factors. The results were listed as follows. (1) In the past 10 years, the level of agricultural production efficiency in Guangxi was relatively low, and the overall performance of the study period was DEA, and it was invalid and the scale return was decreasing; the spatial difference was large, and the agricultural production efficiency of each city presented different characteristics of time change, only Wuzhou city, Beihai city and Qinzhou city had been in the DEA efficiency of agricultural production. (2) The total factor productivity of agriculture (TFP) was fluctuating growth in Guangxi; technological progress was the main driving force of agricultural TFP growth, the areas with high agricultural TFP were the northeast (Guilin city, Wuzhou city, Guigang city) and the south (Beihai city, Fangchenggang city, Qinzhou city). (3) Among the influencing factors of agricultural production efficiency, irrigation effective rate of cropland、agricultural science and technology were the promoting factors, which were positively correlated with agricultural production efficiency. Fertilizer application intensity of per unit area, government investment and dynamic of agricultural machinery per unit cultivated land were the limiting factors, which were negatively correlated with agricultural production efficiency. Technological progress, pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency were the promoting factors for the improvement of agricultural TFP. To conclude, in the past 10 years, the overall agricultural production efficiency and total factor productivity in Guangxi are relatively low, and the spatial and temporal difference is large; we should increase investment in agricultural science and technology, strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure, and improve the level of scale, so as to improve the efficiency of agricultural production in Guangxi.