农户环境友好型农业技术选择行为及异质性基于离散选择实验的研究

FARMERS’ CHOICE ON AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES BEHAVIOR AND ITS HETEROGENEITYA STUDY BASED ON DISCRETE CHOICE EXPERIMENT

关键词:  农业绿色发展  农业环境政策方案  离散选择实验  混合Logit模型  偏好异质性

Key words:  green development of agriculture  agri-environmental schemes  discrete choice experiment  mixed logit model  preference heterogeneity

摘要:

目的 中国是世界上最大的化肥和农药使用国，农业绿色发展面临严峻挑战，这与缺少国家层面和农田管理层面为农户专门设计的环境友好型技术及配套激励政策不无关系。方法 文章利用离散选择实验（Discrete choice experiment，DCE），以环境友好型农业技术（Agri-environmental technologies，AETs）及配套政策为基础设计农业环境政策方案（Agri-environmental schemes，AES）。用混合Logit模型（Mixed Logit model，MXL）来揭示农户在假想的AES情景下对AETs的选择行为及影响因素，证实农户偏好异质性的存在。后续条件Logit模型（Conditional Logit model，CLM）引入交互变量进一步揭示农户的偏好异质性来源。结果 研究表明补偿额度及农户社会经济变量是影响其参与AES的主要因素，且相对于退出保持现有耕种方式不变农户更偏好于实施AES。该研究还证实了农户对AETs选择偏好存在异质性，因此灵活的政策设计是AES顺利实施的重要保障。结论 鉴于对农户选择偏好及异质性的充分了解，政策制定者可以科学地制定和微调农业环境政策，设计AES以最大限度地减少各类农户反对意见，吸引绝大多数农户采纳AETs实践，提高项目参与率。

Abstract:

China is the world's largest user of chemical fertilizer and pesticides. However, agricultural non-point source pollution control lacks national-level policy and farm-level enforcement on farmers and agricultural green development faces severe challenges. Based on agri-environmental technologies (AETs) and corresponding supporting measures, this paper used discrete choice experiment (DCE) to design agri-environmental schemes (AES). The mixed logit model (MXL) revealed farmers' AES choice behavior and influencing factors, and confirmed the existence of heterogeneity of farmers' preferences. Subsequently, the conditional logit model(CLM) introduced interactive variables to further reveal how these technologies in AES contract specifically affected farmers with different characteristics to participate in and sign AES contracts. Studies showed that the amount of subsidies and farmers' socio-economic characteristics were the main factors in participating in AES. Compared with keeping the current farming methods unchanged, farmers prefered to implement the AES scheme. This study also confirmed the existence of heterogeneity of farmers' preference for AETs, so flexible policy design was an important guarantee for the smooth implementation of AES. In summary, given sufficient knowledge about the nature of farmer heterogeneity, schemes can be designed to appeal to the majority of farmers. The results of this research should allow policy makers to fine tune and target policies to maximize the likelihood of participation by farmers, a suite of contract options needs to be offered.