中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易现状及潜力评价基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

THE PRESENT STATE AND POTENTIAL EVALUATION OF BILATERAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN XINJIANG IN CHINA AND KAZAKHSTANAN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON GRAVITY MODEL

关键词:  中国新疆  哈萨克斯坦  贸易潜力  引力模型  农产品贸易

Key words:  Xinjiang in China  Kazakhstan  trade potential  gravity model  agricultural trade

摘要:

目的 文章利用2004—2017年乌鲁木齐海关数据，研究中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易的现状、互补性及影响因素，挖掘中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力，为进一步拓展双方农产品贸易提出建议。方法 采用产业内贸易指数和引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易规模总体处于增长态势，但贸易联系紧密度不高；中国新疆以出口水果、蔬菜等劳动密集型农产品为主，哈萨克斯坦主要出口畜产品、棉麻丝等资源密集型农产品；农产品贸易整体属于产业内贸易，在九大类细分农产品领域存在各自竞争优势，双方贸易需求基本没有重叠，互补性较强；双方经济总量、人口规模、农产品贸易联系紧密程度、空间距离等是影响农产品双边贸易的重要因素。结论 中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易潜力总体呈现增长趋势，尤其在“一带一路”倡议提出后，双方贸易潜力提升幅度明显。

Abstract:

This research is intended to scientifically evaluate and identify the potential of agricultural trade between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan, so as to provide suggestions for bilateral trade development. Using the agricultural trade data from Urumqi Customs between 2004 and 2017, this paper analyzed the present state, complementarity and impact factors of the agricultural trade between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan, by conducting an empirical analysis based on the Intra-industry Trade Index and the Gravity Model.The results were showed as follows. (1) The agricultural trade scale between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan showed an increasing trend but showing a low degree of trade connections. (2) Xinjiang in China's agricultural exports to Kazakhstan were mostly labor-intensive products, such as fruit and vegetables, whereas Kazakhstan's main agricultural exports to Xinjiang in China were resource-intensive products, such as livestock products and cotton linen. (3) Intra-industry trade dominated the agricultural trade between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan, both of which had respective competitive advantages in 9 categories of agricultural products, differentiated demand and strong trade complementarity. (4) Key factors affecting the bilateral trade between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan were their economic size, population, the degree of agricultural trade and geographical distance. It concludes that the overall agricultural trade potential between Xinjiang in China and Kazakhstan has been increasing, with a substantial increase witnessed after launching the "the Belt and Road Initiative". This research suggests that Xinjiang's geographical and transportation advantages, coupled with the coordination of China's "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction and Kazakhstan's new economic policy of "Bright Road", can offer promising trade opportunities, and Xinjiang should seize these opportunities and endeavor to increase their complementary trade growth based on differences in factor endowment, and seek to achieve win-win results with Kazakhstan by maximizing the trade potential.