政策认知对生猪养殖户补栏行为的影响研究基于884份调研数据分析

STUDY ON POLICY COGNITION AFFECT THE REPLENISHING BEHAVIOR OF PIG FARMERSANALYSIS BASED ON 884 SURVEY DATA

Key words:  pig  farmers  policy cognition  replenishing behavior  endogenous switching regression model

摘要:

目的 生猪养殖户补栏行为对稳定生猪生产、保障生猪供应具有关键性作用。分析政策认知对生猪养殖户补栏行为的影响，旨在丰富“认知—行为”研究思路，同时为政府引导养殖户理性补栏、完善系列稳产保供政策提供参考。方法 文章从补贴、信贷支持、用地、环评、疫病防控、运输六方面构建政策认知指标，基于河北、陕西、河南3省884份生猪养殖户调研数据，采用因子分析法测度政策认知水平，进一步运用内生转换回归模型（ESRM）实证分析政策认知对生猪养殖户补栏行为的影响。结果 政策认知显著正向影响生猪养殖户补栏行为。反事实假设下，政策认知程度低阶段养殖户若处于政策认知程度低阶段认知状态，其补栏程度将降低24.2%；政策认知程度低阶段养殖户若处于政策认知程度高阶段状态，其补栏程度将提高87.9%；若样本养殖户均处于政策认知程度高阶段，总体补栏程度将提高56.1%；风险偏好、养殖规模、上一期生猪销售价格、是否加入养殖合作社、新冠疫情影响程度也会显著正向影响养殖户补栏行为，受教育程度、与上一期相比单头生猪饲养成本变动、2019年是否发生非洲猪瘟则显著负向影响养殖户补栏行为。结论 政府相关部门需多渠道广泛宣传、解读生猪产业扶持政策，提高养殖户对相关政策内容、申请程序等方面的了解程度；积极跟踪政策落实情况，避免政策形式主义，切实解决养殖户面临的各种实际难题和风险，引导养殖户合理补栏；进一步加强养殖专业合作社建设，提升合作社技术培训、疫病防控等多种服务能力。

Abstract:

The replenishing behavior of pig farmers plays a key role in stabilizing pig production and ensuring pig supply.Therefore, this study aims at enriching the research ideas about cognition-behavior and providing reference for the government to guide pig farmers to replenish pigs rationally and improve policies on stabilizing pig production and supply by analyzing the influence of policy cognition on the replenishing behavior of pig farmers. The assessment indicators system of policy cognition included six aspects:subsidies, credit support, land use, environmental assessment, epidemic prevention&control and transportation.Based on the survey data of 884 pig farmers in Hebei, Shaanxi and Henan provinces, this paper used factor analysis to measure the level of policy cognition,and analyzed the impact of policy cognition on the replenishing behavior of pig farmers by using the endogenous switching regression model (ESRM).It can be found that the policy cognition had a significantly positive effect on the replenishing behavior of pig farmers.Under the counter factual hypothesis, if the pig farmers with high policy cognition were in the state of low policy cognition, the degree of replenishment would be reduced by 24.2%; if the pig farmers with low policy cognition were in the state of high policy cognition, the degree of replenishment would be increased by 87.9%. And the degree of replenishment would be increased by 56.1%, if all sample pig farmers being in the high level of policy cognition. In addition,risk preference, breeding scale,pig price in the previous period, whether to join the breeding cooperatives and the influence of COVID-19 also had significantly positive effects on the replenishing behavior of pig farmers.However, education level, the change of single pig feeding cost compared with the previous period and whether occurring the African Swine Fever or not in 2019 had significantly negative impacts on the replenishing behavior of pig farmers. According to above results, the conclusions can be drawn as follows. Relevant government departments should widely publicize and interpret the supporting policies of pig industry through multiple channels,so as to raise the pig farmers' understanding of relevant policies contents and application procedures.Besides, they need follow up the policy implementation results actively to avoid policy formalism,effectively solving all kinds of practical problems and risks faced by pig farmers and guiding pig farmers to replenish pigs reasonably. At the same time, relevant government departments are supposed to enhance their service capacity by strengthening the construction of professional breeding cooperatives and improve the technical training and epidemic prevention&control.