新疆棉花生产要素成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势研究基于465户农户问卷调查数据

STUDY ON THE CHANGING TREND OF COTTON PRODUCTION FACTORS' COST-PROFIT AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN XINJIANGBASED ON THE QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY DATA OF 465 FARM HOUSEHOLDS

关键词:  棉花  农户  生产要素  规模报酬  变动趋势

Key words:  cotton  farm household  production factor  returns to scale  changing trend

摘要:

目的 由于生产要素的价格稳步攀升，新疆棉花生产成本过高，加上新疆棉花销售回归市场，价格不稳定，导致棉花生产风险增大，棉农种棉积极性降低。文章通过对新疆棉花成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势的研究，为棉农生产决策和政府政策提供参考。方法 在对新疆棉农问卷调查的基础上，研究棉花种植规模变动下生产要素的规模报酬。在二次函数的基础上寻找生产要素投入成本较低，收益最大的植棉规模，运用多元线性回归模型分析棉花生产要素投入对植棉成本的影响，以及不同植棉规模下生产要素对棉花产量增加的贡献程度。结果 新疆农户棉花生产的单位面积成本和收益随着户均种植规模的变化呈二次曲线变化；单位面积成本随着种植规模扩大，先下降，超过一定规模后上升，成本最低植棉规模为3.56hm²；单位面积收益随着种植规模扩大，先增加，超过一定规模后下降，收益最高的植棉规模为4.67~5.33hm²。研究发现，户均种植规模在2.5~4.5hm²时，土地费用、机械作业费、水电费、雇工费用投入对棉花产量的贡献较大，规模在7~10hm²时，化肥投入对棉花产量的贡献较大；农药、地膜、滴灌带等物质投入未体现规模趋势。结论 新疆农户棉花生产的成本和收益随着种植规模不同而变化的趋势符合规模经济原理，存在最优种植规模；在不同种植规模下，各种要素投入对新疆农户棉花产量的影响差异明显。因此，要引导棉农合理投入生产要素，降低成本，增加收益。

Abstract:

Due to the steady rising of production factors prices, the cotton production cost in Xinjiang is too high, in addition to that, the sales of cotton in Xinjiang has returned to market, so that the price of cotton is unstable, which increase the risk of cotton production and reduce farmers'enthusiasm to plant cotton. Therefore, by studying the changing trend of cotton production factors'cost-profit and returns to scale in Xinjiang, this paper provides reference for cotton farmers to make production decision and for governments to make policy. Based on the questionnaire survey of farm households, we had studied the returns to scale of production factors under the changing cotton culture scale. Based on Quadratic Function, we tried to find out the very cotton culture scale which had the least cost but the utmost profit. Using Multiple Linear Regression Model, we had analyzed the influence from cotton factors investment to cotton culture cost, and the contribution degree from different cotton culture scales to cotton production increase. The study showed that the cotton production cost and profit per unit area, for cotton farmers in Xinjiang, shaped as Quadratic Curve with the variation of the average culture scale per household; With the enlarging cotton culture scale, the per unit area cost firstly decreased, then, surpassing certain scale, increased, and the least cost scale was 3.56 hm². The same pattern for profit, with the enlarging cotton culture scale, the per unit area profit firstly increased, then, surpassing certain scale, decreased, and the utmost profit scale was 4.67~5.33 hm². Through the study, we found that the contribution of the investment cost of land, mechanical operation, water and electricity and labor to cotton yield was greater when the average culture scale per household was 2.5~4.5hm², the contribution of the investment cost of fertilizer to cotton yield was greater when the average culture scale per household was 7~10hm²; the investment showed no scale trend, such as pesticide, mulching film, drip tape, and so on. In summary, the changing trend of cotton production cost-profit with different culture scales for farm households in Xinjiang conforms to the theory of scale economy, and there is an optimal culture scale; under different culture scale, the difference resulting from the influence of various factors investment to cotton yield for farm households in Xinjiang is distinct. So, we should lead cotton farmers to do rational investment of production factors, reduce production cost, and increase profit.