长江经济带粮食生产时空分异及空间效应

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION AND SPATIAL EFFECTS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

关键词:  粮食生产  时空分异  空间效应  空间面板数据模型  长江经济带

Key words:  grain production  spatial-temporal differentiation  spatial effects  spatial panel data models  the Yangtze River Economic Belt

摘要:

目的 研究长江经济带粮食生产的时空分异规律，探究影响长江经济带粮食生产的主导因素，以及各影响因素的真实空间交互效应，以期为新时期长江经济带粮食生产策略的制定提供科学依据。方法 文章基于2000—2018年长江经济带市级面板数据，运用标准差椭圆、空间自相关分析、空间面板数据模型等方法，对长江经济带粮食生产时空分异特征和影响因素的空间效应进行分析。结果 （1）长江经济带粮食产量呈波动增加的态势，对全国粮食产量的贡献率不断下降，各省份粮食生产状况差异较大；（2）粮食高产市域数量增加，粮食生产重心向东北偏移，生产空间分布呈西南—东北趋势，整体呈收缩集聚态势；（3）长江经济带粮食生产存在显著的正的空间溢出效应，从直接效应来看，土地规模、化肥投入、农业机械化水平和农业结构调整对当地粮食生产具有显著的促进作用，劳动力规模和人均GDP水平对当地粮食生产具有显著的负向影响，非农就业机会和非农产业地位对当地粮食生产的影响不显著；从间接效应来看，土地规模、劳动力规模和人均GDP水平具有溢出效应，对相邻地区粮食生产起到显著的促进作用，其他因素的溢出效应不显著。结论 长江经济带粮食生产空间集聚日趋明显，要继续加强高产集聚区域农田基础设施建设，加大政策扶持力度，不断提高高产集聚区域的粮食综合生产能力，也要适当引导其他区域积极发展粮食生产，防止“去粮化”现象发生。同时，各区域要发挥粮食生产的比较优势，实现资源要素互补，并基于市场机制来调节长江经济带粮食供给与需求，以实现区域内粮食供需均衡。

Abstract:

This research is intended to study the temporal and spatial differentiation of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, explore the dominant factors affecting grain production and the real spatial interaction effects of each factor in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, in order to provide science for the formulation of food production strategies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the new era. Based on the panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2018, this paper used standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatial panel data models to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and the spatial effects of influencing factors of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The research results were listed as follows. (1 )Grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a fluctuating and increasing trend, and its contribution to the national grain production continued to decline, with large differences of various provinces. (2) The number of high-yield cities increased, and the grain production center shifted to the northeast. The spatial distribution had showed a trend from southwest to northeast. The production space had been shrinking and agglomerating. (3) There was a significant positive spatial spillover effect in grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. In terms of direct effects, land scale, fertilizer input, agricultural mechanization and the adjustment of agricultural structure had a significant positive impact on promoting local grain production, while labor force and GDP per capita had a significant negative impact. The impact of non-agricultural employment opportunities and non-agricultural industry status was not significant. In terms of indirect effects, land scale, labor force and GDP per capita had spillover effects, which had significantly promoted grain production in adjacent areas, while the spillover effects of other factors were not significant. All in all, the agglomeration of grain production space in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is becoming clear. It is necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of farmland infrastructure in high-yield agglomeration areas and increase policy support，in order to continuously improve the comprehensive grain production capacity of high-yield agglomeration areas. Also, it is necessary to appropriately guide other regions to actively develop grain production to prevent de-graining. At the same time, each region should give play to the comparative advantages of grain production, implement the complementation of resource elements, and adjust the grain supply and demand in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on the market mechanism to achieve a balance of grain supply and demand within the region.