基于DSSAT模型的1961—2017年东北地区马铃薯潜在单产及其影响因子分析

ANALYSIS ON POTATO POTENTIAL YIELD AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN NORTHEAST CHINA FROM 1961 TO 2017 BASED ON THE DSSAT MODEL

关键词:  DSSAT模型  潜在单产  东北三省  马铃薯  气象因子

Key words:  DSSAT model  potential yield  three northeastern provinces  potato  meteorological factors

摘要:

目的 文章基于DSSAT-SUBSTOR作物生长模型， 分析1961—2017年东北三省马铃薯种植区域内均匀分布的21个国家气象局气象观测站点马铃薯的潜在单产的变化特征及气候因子对潜在单产的影响。方法 首先， 基于东北三省马铃薯种植区域内均匀分布的21个国家气象局气象观测站点1961—2017年逐日气象数据， 运用验证后的DSSAT-SUBSTOR模型模拟该时段站点位置马铃薯潜在单产；然后运用灰色关联法提取影响马铃薯潜在单产的优势气象因子；最后运用多元回归分析方法揭示主要优势气象因子对潜在单产的影响程度， 分析马铃薯潜在单产及其气候影响因子的时空差异性。结果 （1）1961—2017年东北三省国家气象局站点马铃薯潜在单产均呈减少趋势，潜在单产最低和最高的站点分别是五大连池和梅河口， 变化最小和最大的站点分别是兴城和绥芬河；（2）1961—2017年黑龙江省增温幅度最大， 吉林省气温日较差降低最多， 辽宁省日辐射量减少最明显；研究区生长季平均温的升高、气温日较差的降低以及辐射量的减少均导致马铃薯潜在单产降低， 其中， 平均温度是对研究区马铃薯潜在单产减产贡献最大的气象因子；对平均温度、气温日较差和日辐射量最敏感的站点分别是五大连池、公主岭和瓦房店。结论 东北三省地区已进入气候暖干化阶段， 在今后的马铃薯生产中应通过适时调整播期、培育或引进适应气候变化的新品种等科学农田管理措施， 充分利用气候资源、提高马铃薯生产力水平。

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the potential yields of potatoes due to climate from 1961 to 2017 by using the DSSAT-SUBSTOR crop growth model with data from 21 uniformly distributed meteorological observation stations of National Meteorological Administration in potato planting areas in the three provinces of Northeast China. The present study first used the verified DSSAT-SUBSTOR model to simulate the potential yield of potatoes from 1961 to 2017 by using daily meteorological data at the 21 stations. The dominant climatic factors of the potential yield were then extracted by using the gray correlation method. Multiple regression was subsequently used to reveal the degree of influence of dominant meteorological factors on potential yield, to determine the spatial and temporal differences of the dominant influenced factors and their impact on the spatial and temporal variations of potential yields of potatoes. The results were showed as follows. Firstly, the potential yields of the stations tested all decreased from 1961 to 2017. The stations with the lowest and highest potential yields were Wudalianchi and Meihekou, respectively, and the stations with the smallest and largest yield changes were Suifenhe and Xingcheng, respectively. Secondly, between 1961 and 2017, Heilongjiang province had the greatest increase in temperature; Jilin province had the greatest decrease in diurnal temperature range; and Liaoning province had the greatest decrease in daily radiation. The increase in the average temperature of the growing season, the decrease of diurnal temperature range, and the reduction in radiation all led to a reduction in potential yields of potatoes in the study area. Among them, the average temperature was the meteorological factor that contributed the most to the potential yield reduction in the three provinces. The stations most sensitive to average temperature, diurnal temperature range and daily radiation were Wudalianchi, Gongzhuling and Wafangdian, respectively. In summary, the results shows that the three northeastern provinces enter the phase of climate warming and drying, so, scientific farmland management measures, such as timely adjustment of sowing schedule, cultivation or introduction of new varieties that adapt to climate change, should be used to make full use of climate resources and improve the productivity of potatoes in the future.