基于手机信令对农民工返乡入乡创业园的监测分析

MONITORING AND ANALYSIS OF MIGRANT WORKERS RETURNING HOME TO RURAL ENTREPRENEURIAL PARKS BASED ON MOBILE PHONE SIGNALING

关键词:  返乡入乡  创业园  手机信令  大数据  农民就业

Key words:  return home  Rural Entrepreneurial Parks  mobile phone signaling  big data  farmer  employment

摘要:

目的 2020年11月农业农村部等7部门联合印发《关于推进返乡入乡创业园建设 提升农村创业创新水平的意见》。指出到2025年在全国县域建设1 500个返乡入乡创业园。文章介绍了对返乡入乡创业园进行选址评估、日常监管以及人群分析等，为政府部门对调控创业产业链生态，扶持创业园发展提供数据支撑。方法 利用手机信令大数据、时空大数据、人群画像、人工智能等技术，基于人口时空流动及劳动力迁徙模型，并通过全量外推专利算法，对全国人口迁徙轨迹、地理位置信息等大数据进行监测分析。结果 通过对返乡入乡创业园及县域人口情况进行常态化监测，分析可得出创业园就业规模、工作量、就业群体、就业人员来源地等信息。结论 返乡入乡创业园是引导更多农民返乡创业创新，带动农民就业增收，助力乡村全面振兴的重要抓手，运用手机信令大数据对园区所在县域的人口迁徙轨迹进行动态监测，对返乡入乡创业园的选址、人才的吸纳、带动就业的岗位数量情况以及对当地县域经济的影响的分析都具有重要参考价值。

Abstract:

In November 2020, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other 7 government departments jointly issued the "Opinions on promoting the construction of rural entrepreneurial parks for migrant workers returning to hometown and improving the level of entrepreneurship and innovation". The document pointes out that 1 500 Rural Entrepreneurial Parks for migrant workers returning to hometown will be built in counties across the country by 2025.The article introduces the site selection evaluation, daily supervision and crowd analysis of the Rural Entrepreneurial Parks for migrant workers returning to hometown,which can provide data support for government departments to regulate the ecology of the entrepreneurial industry chain and support the development of entrepreneurial parks. The national population migration trajectory, geographic location information and other big data can be monitored and analyzed by using mobile phone signaling big data, spatio-temporal big data, crowd profiling, artificial intelligence and other technologies, based on population spatio-temporal flow and labor migration models, and through fully extrapolated patented algorithms. The results were showed as follows. The information on the employment scale, workload, employment group and employment source for Rural Entrepreneurial Parks could be obtained through the normalized monitoring and analysis of the population in Rural Entrepreneurial Parks and counties. In summary, Rural Entrepreneurial Park is an important starting point for guiding more farmers to return to their hometowns for entrepreneurship and innovation, driving farmers' employment and income, and helping the overall revitalization of the countryside.It has the important reference value for using mobile signaling big data to dynamically monitor the population migration trajectory of the county where the park is located, and to analyze the site selection of Rural Entrepreneurial Parks, the attraction of talents, the number of job positions that drive employment, and the the impact on the local county economy.