高致病性禽流感对中国家禽市场分割程度的冲击及滞后性影响研究基于中国省际面板数据

STUDY ON THE CURRENT AND LAGGING EFFECTS OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA ON THE SEGMENTATION OF POULTRY MARKET IN CHINABASED ON CHINA’ S INTER PROBINCIAL PANEL DATA

关键词:  高致病性禽流感  家禽市场  分割程度  滞后性  相对价格法  法阿尔蒙分布  滞后模型

Key words:  highly pathogenic avian influenza  poultry market  segmentation  lag effect  relative price method  Almon distributed  lag model

摘要:

目的 基于中国省际面板数据，采用相对价格法测算2001年1月至2017年12月中国家禽市场分割指数，在此基础上使用阿尔蒙分布滞后模型检验了高致病性禽流感对中国家禽市场分割程度的冲击及滞后性影响。方法 文章运用相对价格法测算家禽分割指数，同时使用阿尔蒙分布滞后模型进行计量回归。结果 研究发现，高致病性禽流感对家禽市场造成严重负向冲击：不仅在短时间内阻碍省际间家禽市场流通，更是长期加剧省际家禽市场的分割。疫情发生的当月禽类感染型禽流感对家禽市场分割程度的影响小于人感染型禽流感；随着滞后期的推移，禽类感染型禽流感对家禽市场分割程度造成的即期滞后影响和累积滞后影响均大于人感染型禽流感。结论 中国政府不仅要关注高致病性禽流感发生时疫情的防控和家禽养殖户的补偿，也要充分考虑疫情结束后停养、休市、限运等政策对家禽市场带来的滞后性影响，完善补偿和市场价格机制，正确引导家禽养殖户以及其他利益相关者恢复信心，确保家禽市场稳定。

Abstract:

Based on China's inter-provincial panel data, this paper used the relative price method to calculate the segmentation index of China's poultry market from January 2001 to December 2017. On this basis, the Almon distribution lag model was used to test the impact and lag of HPAI on the degree of the segmentation of Chinese poultry market. The relative price method was used to measure the poultry segmentation index, and the Almon distributed lag model was used for econometric regression. It was found that highly pathogenic avian influenza had a serious negative impact on poultry market: not only did it hinder the circulation of inter provincial poultry market in a short time, but also aggravated the segmentation of inter provincial poultry market in a long time.In the month of the outbreak, the impact of avian infectious influenza on poultry market segmentation was less than that of human infectious avian influenza.As the lag period went on, the immediate lag impact and cumulative lag impact of avian infectious influenza on poultry market segmentation was greater than that of human infectious avian influenza.Therefore, the Chinese government should not only pay attention to the prevention and control of the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza and the compensation for poultry farmers, but also fully consider the lagging impact of policies, such as suspension of raising, closing the market and restricting the transportation of poultry after the outbreak on the poultry market, improve the compensation and market price mechanism, correctly guide poultry farmers and other stakeholders to restore confidence and ensure the stability of the poultry market.