乡村振兴战略下区域农业人口预测研究以黄淮海平原典型农业区为例

STUDY ON REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL POPULATION FORECAST UNDER RURAL REVITALIZATION STRATEGYTAKING THE TYPICAL AGRICULTURAL AREA OF HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  自适应ARMA模型  农业人口  中期预测  黄淮海平原  典型农业区

Key words:  adaptive autoregressive moving average model  agriculture population  middle term forecast  Huang-Huai-HaiPlain  typical agricultural area

摘要:

目的 准确预测区域农业人口规模可为推进新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略提供数据支撑。方法 文章针对传统的自回归滑动平均模型不能直接应用于时间序列的中期预测的缺点，借助抗噪音迭代模型在中期人口预测方面的优势，将传统的自回归滑动平均模型的求解问题化为模型参数的非线性问题，推导并完整给出了模型的代价函数关于模型参数的梯度， 继而给出了模型参数的迭代求解公式，从而构建了改进的自适应自回归滑动平均模型，并以黄淮海平原两个典型生态区——曲周县传统农业区和北京市都市农业区为例进行农业人口中期预测。结果 结果显示该模型的预测精度较高，结果可信。传统农业区曲周县的农业人口呈小幅波动性增加且增速趋缓并逐渐趋向于一个理性范围内；都市农业区北京市的农业人口呈小幅波动性下降且降速趋缓并逐渐稳定在一个理性范围内。结论 改进的自适应自回归滑动平均模型可很好地进行区域农业人口的中期预测；针对黄淮海平原两个典型生态区——曲周县传统农业区和北京都市农业区的农业人口变化的特点，提出了相应的人口策略。

Abstract:

Precisely predictingthe scale of regional agricultural populationcan provide data support for the promotion of new urbanization and rural revitalization strategy. In view of the shortcoming of the traditional autoregressive moving average model and the advantages of the anti-noise iterative model in the medium-term population prediction to the medium-term prediction of time series, the problem of solving the traditional autoregressive moving average model was changed into a nonlinear problem of the model parameters, and the gradient of the model parameters was deduced and given completely with the cost function of the model. Then the iterative solution formula of the model parameters was given, so as to construct an improved adaptive autoregressive moving average model. Taking two typical ecological areas in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the traditional agricultural area in Quzhou county and the urban agricultural area in Beijing as examples, the medium-term agricultural population prediction was carried out. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model was high and the results were reliable. In the traditional agricultural area of Quzhou county, the agricultural population continued to increase slightly and the growth rate wouldslow down and gradually tended to a rational range. In the urban agricultural area of Beijing, the agricultural population showed a small fluctuation decrease and the decreasing speed would be gradually stabilized in a rational range. It concludes that the improved adaptive and autoregressive moving average model can be used to predict the regional agricultural population. According to the characteristics of the change of agricultural population in the traditional agricultural area of Quzhou county and the urban agricultural area of Beijing, the corresponding population strategy is put forward.