三维生态足迹视角下江西省自然资本可持续利用演化及其驱动因素

EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS OF SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION OF NATURAL CAPITAL IN IN JIANGXI PROVINCE FORM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT MODEL

关键词:  三维生态足迹  自然资本可持续利用  地理加权回归  时空演替  江西省

Key words:  three-dimensional ecological footprint  natural capital sustainable utilization  geographical weighted regression  spatiotemporal evolution  Jiangxi province

摘要:

目的 文章以三维生态足迹视角对江西省自然资本可持续利用演化及动力机制进行研究，以期为实现“高经济水平，高自然资本存量”的可持续发展状态提供参考。方法 通过三维生态足迹模型计算自然资本，并用GWR模型识别可持续性驱动因素的空间异质性。结果 （1）从时间序列上：全省自然资本整体呈现先增长后下降的趋势；从内部组分构成看，生物账户是存量资本消耗的主要方式，耕地和林地是流量资本占用的主要方式。（2）从空间格局上：足迹深度空间格局表现为西部＞南部＞东部，其中新余市最高达13.264hm²/人，鹰潭市最低为2.717hm²/人；足迹广度在0.460～0.526hm²/人波动，空间格局表现为西部＞东部＞北部，其中鹰潭市最大值为0.860hm²/人，萍乡市最小值为0.199hm²/人；自然资本可持续利用综合分区表现为中部低于四周地区。（3）自党的十八大以来，江西省自然资本可持续利用整体呈现变好趋势，通过定量回归分析发现，引起自然资本可持续利用空间差异的主要原因是生态足迹强度、城市化率、生态承载力，且这3个因素在空间上有不同的表现模式。结论 该省的人均生态足迹、人均生态赤字和足迹深度、足迹广度的变化整体呈现先增长后下降的趋势，大力提升东、中部自然资本流量是实现区域协调发展的必由之路。要以降低生态足迹强度，提高生态承载力和控制城市化速率三项因素入手，以期实现江西省资源环境和社会经济可持续发展。

Abstract:

This study uses the perspective of three-dimensional ecological footprint to study the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the sustainable use of natural capital in Jiangxi province, with a view to providing references for the realization of the sustainable development state of "high economic level and high natural capital stock". This research calculated natural capital through the three-dimensional ecological footprint model, and used the GWR model to identify the spatial heterogeneity of sustainability drivers. The results were listed as follows. Firstly, from the time series, the province's natural capital as a whole showed a trend of first growth and then decline; from the perspective of internal composition, biological accounts were the main way of stock capital consumption, and cultivated land and forest land were the main ways of flow capital occupation. Secondly, in terms of spatial pattern, the spatial pattern of footprint depth was the west> the south> the east. The highest was 13.264 hm²/person in Xinyu city and the lowest was 2.717 hm²/person in Yingtan city; the footprint width fluctuated between 0.460～0.526 hm²/person. The spatial pattern was the west> the east> the north. The maximum value of Yingtan city was 0.860 hm²/person, and the minimum value of Pingxiang city was 0.199 hm²/person. The comprehensive zoning of the sustainable utilization of natural capital was represented by the central area, and it was lower than the surrounding areas. Finally, since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the overall sustainable use of natural capital in Jiangxi province had shown a trend of improvement. Through quantitative regression analysis, it was found that the main reasons for the spatial difference in sustainable use of natural capital were the intensity of ecological footprint, urbanization rate, and ecological carrying capacity. And these three factors had different expression modes in space. In conclusion, the province's per capita ecological footprint, per capita ecological deficit, footprint depth, and footprint breadth shows an overall trend of growth first and then decline. Vigorously increasing the natural capital flow in the eastern and central regions is the only way to achieve coordinated regional development. It is necessary to start with the three factors of reducing the intensity of the ecological footprint, increasing the ecological carrying capacity and controlling the rate of urbanization, in order to realize the sustainable development of resources, environment and social economy in Jiangxi province.