黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度变化及其驱动因素

CHANGES AND DRIVING FACTORS OF CULTIVATED LAND USE INTENSITY IN YELLOW RIVER DELTA

关键词:  耕地利用集约度  驱动因素  能值分析  地理探测器  黄河三角洲

Key words:  cultivated land use intensity  driving factors  energy analysis  Geographical detector  Yellow River Delta

摘要:

目的 研究黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度的变化及其驱动因素，拟为提高该区域耕地利用效率、保障区域粮食安全以及促进耕地生态保护和农业可持续发展提供参考。方法 文章利用能值分析理论和GIS空间分析技术分析了1988—2019年黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度的时空变化特征，并利用地理探测器进一步探讨了耕地利用集约度区域差异的主要驱动因素。结果 （1）1988—2019年黄河三角洲耕地利用总集约度呈上升—下降—上升的变化趋势，其中，劳动集约度的变化呈下降趋势，资本集约度的变化呈上升—下降—上升趋势；资本集约度中，属于省工性投入的农业机械集约度呈上升—下降—上升的变化趋势，属于增产性投入的农药、化肥、农膜集约度呈先升后降的变化趋势。（2）黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度存在显著的区域差异，总体上“西、南部高，东北部低”。（3）复种指数、人口非农化比重和耕地资源禀赋对黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度的独立影响程度最大，各种影响因素的交互作用对耕地利用集约度的影响远大于单一影响因素对其产生的影响。结论 应注重农药、化肥、农膜的生态效应，加快土地流转，全面推广农业机械化，实现农业规模化经营，同时，要抓住建设黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的发展契机，充分发挥经济和农业政策的导向作用，以全面提高黄河三角洲耕地利用集约度，缩小区域差异。

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the change of cultivated land use intensity and its driving factors in the Yellow River Delta, so as to provide reference for improving cultivated land use efficiency, ensuring regional food security, and promoting cultivated land ecological protection and agricultural sustainable development. The spatial-temporal variation characteristics of cultivated land use intensity in the Yellow River delta from 1988 to 2019 were analyzed by energy analysis theory and GIS spatial analysis technology, and the main driving factors of regional differences in cultivated land use intensity were further discussed by geographical detector. The results were showed as follows. (1) From 1988 to 2019, the total cultivated land use intensity in the Yellow River Delta showed a trend of first rising, then falling and finally re-rising, and the labor intensity showed a decreasing trend, and the capital intensity showed a trend of first rising, then falling and finally re-rising. In the capital intensity, the agricultural machinery intensity which belonged to labor-saving input showed a trend of first rising, then falling and finally re-rising, and the pesticide, fertilizer, and agricultural film intensity which belonged to production-increasing input showed a trend of rising first and falling later. (2) From 1988 to 2019, there were significant regional differences in cultivated land use intensity in the Yellow River Delta, and the spatial distribution features were “high in the west and the south, low in the northeast”. (3) The multiple cropping index, the proportion of non-agricultural population and the resource endowment of cultivated land had the greatest independent influence on the intensity of cultivated land use in the Yellow River Delta. The interaction of various factors had a far greater impact on cultivated land use intensity than the impact of a single factor. It concludes that we should pay attention to the ecological effects of pesticides, fertilizer, and agricultural film, speed up land circulation, promote agricultural mechanization in an all-round way, and realize agricultural large-scale management. At the same time, we should seize the development opportunity of constructing the efficient ecological economic zone in the Yellow River Delta, give full play to the guiding role of economic and agricultural policies, to comprehensively improve the intensity of cultivated land and narrow regional differences in the Yellow River Delta.