西北地区城乡收入差距的时空分异及影响因素

A VIEW ON THE CHANGING CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE URBAN-RURAL RESIDENTS’ INCOME GAP IN NORTHWESTER CHINA

关键词:  城乡收入比  核密度估计  空间自相关  空间滞后模型  西北地区

Key words:  urban-rural income ratio  kernel density estimation  exploratory spatial data analysis  spatial lag model  northwest region

摘要:

目的 为准确把握市域尺度下西北地区城乡收入差距的时空演变特征，促进该区域城乡融合发展。方法 文章基于2010—2018年51个市域单元城乡居民收入比数据，综合运用核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析和空间回归模型等方法研究了西北地区城乡收入差距的时空分异及影响因素。结果 （1）西北地区城乡居民收入比由3.189下降至2.736，下降幅度为14.21%；（2）空间分布格局上形成了东西方向的“U型”特征和南北方向由北及南平滑上升的特征；（3）全局莫兰指数在波动中由0.322上升至0.358，上升幅度为11.18%；（4）空间滞后模型表明城镇化对城乡收入差距有正向影响，产业结构高级化、农业现代化和金融效率对城乡收入差距有负向影响，而经济发展虽然能够缩小城乡收入差距，但两者在计量结果上显示“U型”关系。结论 西北地区城乡收入差距在小幅波动中表现出缩小的趋势，且市域之间的差异呈现出收敛的态势；西北地区城乡收入差距在空间分布上表现出较为显著的正自相关性，且在局部地区有板块集聚特征；空间因素是西北地区缩小城乡收入差距不可忽视的重要因素。

Abstract:

In order to accurately grasp the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the urban-rural income gap in northwest China at city scale, and promote the development of urban-rural integration. Based on the urban-rural income ratio data of 51 municipal units from 2010 to 2018, this paper analyzed the changing characteristics and influencing factors of income gap between urban and rural residents in northwest China. The kernel density estimation, exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression model were used for analyses. The results showed that the urban-rural income ratio of the northwest region fell from 3.189 to 2.736 at city scale with a decrease of 14.21%. The spatial distribution pattern had formed a "U-shaped" feature in the east-west direction and a feature of a smooth rise from north to south in the south-north direction. Furthermore, the global Moran index enhanced from 0.322 to 0.358 in fluctuations with an increase of 11.18%. Additionally, the spatial lag model showed that urbanization had a positive effect and the advanced industrial structure, agricultural modernization, and financial efficiency negatively affected the income gap between urban and rural residents. Likewise, economic development could narrow the gap between urban and rural residents, but showed a "U-shaped" relationship in econometric results. Based on the above analyses, this paper holds that the income gap between urban and rural residents in the northwest region indicates a trend of narrowing in small fluctuations, and the difference between municipal units indicates a convergence trend. The income gap between urban and rural areas in the northwest region shows a more significant positive autocorrelation in spatial distribution, and have the characteristics of plate agglomeration in some areas. Thus, spatial factors play an important role and it cannot be ignored to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas in the northwest region.