经济、人口视角下的城镇化与贫困：线性与U型关系基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND POVERTY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ECONOMY AND POPULATION: LINER AND U RELATIONSEMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA

关键词:  贫困  城镇化  面板数据  贫困治理  U型关系

Key words:  poverty  urbanization  panel data  poverty governance  U-shaped relationship

摘要:

目的 城镇化是影响经济增长和贫困减缓的关键要素，对于城镇化和减贫之间关系的探究具有重要的理论和现实价值。方法 文章基于1999—2018年我国30个省（市、自治区，不包括港澳台和西藏）的面板数据，运用固定效应模型、工具变量法等，分别从人口城镇化和经济城镇化的角度出发，对城镇化和贫困之间的关系进行深入研究。结果 （1）城镇化具有显著的减贫效应，人口城镇化和经济城镇化均能有效降低农村贫困程度。（2）人口城镇化与贫困之间呈U型关系，而经济城镇化对贫困的影响是单向负相关。（3）我国城镇化减贫效应的区域差异明显，相对于东部地区来说，城镇化对于中西部地区的减贫效应更显著。结论 城镇化是减贫的重要途径，但过度的人口城镇化会加剧贫困，城镇化减贫的重点在于与人口城镇化相匹配的经济城镇化水平同步提高，方能达致减贫。所以应全面提升城镇化规划的科学性、基础设施的建设质量和经济发展水平，合理推进城镇化的减贫进程。

Abstract:

Urbanization is a key factor affecting economic growth and poverty alleviation, and it has important theoretical and practical value for exploring the relationship between urbanization and poverty reduction. Based on the national panel data of 30 provinces from 1999 to 2018, this paper conducted an empirical test on the relationship between urbanization and poverty using fixed effect model and instrumental variable method, from the perspectives of population urbanization and economic urbanization, respectively. The research results show that: First, urbanization has a significant poverty reduction effect. Both population urbanization and economic urbanization can effectively reduce poverty. Second, there is a U-shaped relationship between population urbanization and poverty, and the impact of economic urbanization on poverty is a one-way negative correlation. Third, the regional difference of poverty reduction effect of urbanization in China is obvious. Compared with the eastern region, urbanization has a more significant effect on poverty reduction in the central and western regions. Urbanization is an important way to reduce poverty, but excessive urbanization of the population will exacerbate poverty. The focus of the effect of urbanization on poverty reduction is to simultaneously increase the level of economic urbanization that matches the urbanization of the population, so that poverty reduction can be achieved. Therefore, the scientificity of urbanization planning, the quality of infrastructure construction and the level of economic development should be comprehensively improved, and the poverty reduction process of urbanization should be promoted reasonably.