最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响以稻谷为例

INFLUENCE OF THE REFORM OF MINIMUM PURCHASE PRICE POLICY ON CHINA’S FOOD SECURITYTAKING RICE AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  最低收购价  政策改革  市场影响  粮食安全

Key words:  minimum purchase price  policy reform  market influence  food security

摘要:

目的 最低收购价政策实施以来，在稳粮价、促生产、保粮安的同时，也产生了显著的负面影响，探索以市场机制为核心的粮食价格支持政策改革势在必行。方法 文章以稻谷为例，通过构建局部均衡模型，模拟逐渐下调最低收购价、取消最低收购价、取消最低收购价并大幅增加农业补贴等方案对我国稻谷的产量、总消费、库存和净进口等方面的影响，进而探究最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响。结果 （1）下调稻谷最低收购价，对稻谷市场价格、总产量和总消费的影响较小，而对库存和净进口量的影响较大；（2）取消最低收购价，虽然能大幅度减小国内外差价、库存量和进口量，但短期内也会显著减少稻谷产量，对我国的粮食供给安全带来了巨大冲击；（3）取消稻谷最低收购价，并大幅度提高了农业补贴后，稻谷总产量下降水平明显减少，既解决了托市收购带来的负面影响，也降低了取消托市收购对粮食供给安全的冲击。结论 最低收购价政策的支持效应显著，为充分保障国内粮食安全，在推行粮食市场化改革时，应首先考虑小幅度下调最低收购价，而不是一次性取消最低收购价政策；同时，要配套相应的补贴政策，优化农业补贴结构，来保障粮农的种植积极性。

Abstract:

Since the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy, it has played positive roles in stabilizing grain prices, promoting production and ensuring grain safety. However, the minimum purchase price policy also has negative impacts on the increase of domestic and foreign price differentials. It is imperative to reduce the degree of policy intervention in food prices and explore the reform of grain price support policy with market mechanism as the core. To study the impact of the adjustment of minimum purchase price on China's food security, a partial equilibrium model of rice was built to simulate the effects of gradually reducing the minimum purchase price, canceling the minimum purchase price, canceling the minimum purchase price and substantially increasing agricultural subsidies on the production, consumption, inventory and net import of rice. The main results were listed as follows. Reducing the minimum purchase price had less impact on the market price, total output and total consumption of rice, but had a greater impact on the inventory and net import volume. Although the cancellation of the minimum purchase price could significantly reduce the price differential, inventory and import volume, it also significantly reduced the rice production in the short term. Although it essentially solved the negative impact of the national policy acquisition, it had a huge impact on China's food supply security. After the minimum purchase price of rice was cancelled and the agricultural subsidy was greatly increased, the decline level of total rice output was significantly improved. It not only solved the negative impact of the national policy acquisition, but also reduced the negative impact on grain supply security. In summary, the support effect of the minimum purchase price policy is significant. In order to fully ensure domestic food security, when implementing the grain market-oriented reform, we should first consider reducing the minimum purchase price by a small margin, rather than canceling the minimum purchase price policy at one time. At the same time, we should support the corresponding subsidy policies and optimize the structure of agricultural subsidies to ensure farmers' planting enthusiasm.