基于比较优势的中国玉米生产布局变迁及优化研究

RESEARCH ON CHANGES AND OPTIMIZATION OF CHINA’S MAIZE PRODUCTION DISTRIBUTION BASED ON COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

关键词:  玉米生产  布局变迁  影响因素  比较优势  优化

Key words:  maize production  layout change  influencing factors  comparative advantage  optimization

摘要:

目的 基于2000—2018年中国各地区玉米生产面板数据，实证分析中国玉米生产布局变迁的轨迹、驱动因素及优化方向。方法 文章运用区域重心分析法测定并描绘中国玉米生产布局变迁轨迹，运用面板模型实证分析玉米生产布局变迁影响因素，并基于比较优势理论，针对影响因素进一步分析中国各玉米种植区域的比较优势，探讨中国玉米生产布局优化方向。结果 （1）中国玉米生产重心向东北方向移动明显，以黑龙江、吉林等省份为主的北方春播玉米区逐渐取代黄淮海夏播玉米区成为我国第一大玉米主产区；玉米生产布局变迁是玉米生长季温度、生长季降雨量、玉米生产成本和有效灌溉面积等因素综合作用的结果，且不同种植区域在这4个因素上具有不同的比较优势。（2）玉米种植优势产区主要集中在东北和黄淮海地区，包括内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、陕西、天津、河北、山东、河南；非优势产区主要集中在西南山地丘陵区，包括四川、贵州、云南、重庆、青海、西藏；其余为较优势产区，主要分布在南方和西部区域。结论 我国应遵循玉米生产布局变迁规律，因地制宜，优化玉米生产布局，并提高跨区域粮食调配能力，确保区域间粮食供需平衡。

Abstract:

Based on the maize production data of every maize planting region in China from 2000 to 2018, the regional center of gravity analysis method was used to determine and describe the change trajectory of China's maize production distribution, and the panel model was used to empirically analyze the factors affecting the change of maize production distribution. Based on the theory of comparative advantages, the comparative advantages of maize planting regions was further analyzed according to the influencing factors, and the optimization direction of China's maize production distribution was discussed. This study showed that the center of gravity of maize production in China had shifted significantly toward the northeast. The northern spring maize planting region, including Heilongjiang, Jilin and other provinces, was gradually replaced by the Huanghuaihai summer maize planting region and became the largest maize production area. The change of maize production distribution was comprehensively affected by four factors, including temperature in the growing season, rainfall in the growing season, maize production costs, and effective irrigation area. Different planting areas had different comparative advantages in these four factors. The dominant maize production areas were mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Huanghuaihai regions, including province of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan. The non-dominant maize production areas were mainly concentrated in the southwest mountainous and hilly regions, including province of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Qinghai, and Tibet. The rest regions of China were relatively advantageous areas, mainly concentrated in the southern and western regions. In summary, we should follow the law of changes in the distribution of maize production, adjust measures to local conditions, optimize the distribution of maize production, and improve the ability of cross-regional grain allocation to ensure a balance between regional grain supply and demand.