新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

NEW ROUND OF INCREASING GRAIN PRICE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKET: REASONS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE DOMESTIC MARKET IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食价格  供给需求  国际市场  国内市场影响

Key words:  food price  supply  demand  international market  domestic market  impact

摘要:

目的 随着中国粮食进口不断增加，国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来，国际市场粮食价格快速上涨，对国内粮食市场产生一定影响，分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。方法 文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势，从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因，并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。结果 当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足，库存仍处于较高水平，此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响；但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限，国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长，油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。结论 为稳定国内粮食市场，避免国际市场的冲击，中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力，强化科技支撑，加强粮食储备管理，健全政策支持体系，并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。

Abstract:

With the continuous increasing of China's grain imports, the domestic and foreign markets have become more and more closely connected. Since the second half of 2020, grain prices in the international market have been increasing rapidly, making an impact on the domestic grain market. Analyzing the price fluctuations in the international market and their impact on China's grain market is important for ensuring the security and stability of food supply. This paper analyzed the price trends of rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans in domestic and foreign markets since 2019. Then it discussed the reasons for price fluctuations in the international market, including supply and demand, trade policies, and climate change, and also explored the impact of international market on China's market. The conclusion showed that, the supply of world's staple food were sufficient,stocks were still at a high level, and this round of international food price increase was mainly affected by the easing monetary policies of the United States and other developed countries, and increasing demand led by gradual recovery of global consumption. The impact of rising prices in the international market on the Chinese market was generally limited. The main reason for the price increase of domestic wheat, rice, and corn was the rebound of consumption and rapid growth of feed demand driven by the recovery of pig production; but the oil-used soybeans were greatly affected by the international market, because they were mostly imported. Therefore, in order to stabilize the domestic food supply and alleviate the shock from the international market, China should improve its production capacity of grain, strengthen the scientific and technological support, reinforce the management of grain reserve, refine the policy, and guide residents to establish reasonable consumption concepts.