新时期“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略解析与路径探索

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND PATH EXPLORATION OF "GRAIN STORAGE IN LAND AND TECHNOLOGY" IN THE NEW ERA

关键词:  藏粮于地  藏粮于技  粮食安全空间  系统评估  理论研究

Key words:  grain storage in land  grain storage in technology  food security space  system assessment  theoretical research

摘要:

目的 全球粮食安全正面临一系列严峻挑战，如何保障未来粮食系统的稳定性，实现农业资源可持续利用成为国家生存与发展问题的重中之重。中国“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”战略（两藏战略）是完善粮食安全保障体系与合理规划农业生产布局的现实途径。在当前国际战略形势不稳定、国内粮食供求紧平衡的背景下，亟需深入实施两藏战略研究。方法 文章围绕“形势研判—内涵延展—理论架构—要素解析—评估决策”的研究路径对新时期的两藏战略实施目标、定位、方向、任务等关键内容进行阐述，试图面向全球变化视野在系统层面剖析两藏战略现实问题。结果 两藏战略涵盖主体行为、粮食系统、耕地资源、技术体系4个核心内容，是一项具有多层级、多要素、多主体特征的“社会—资源—管理”系统优化工程。在此基础上，管理者可通过构建理论粮食安全空间提出以强调跨学科理论与技术融合为核心的系统评估方法，为国家尺度粮食安全评估提供思路。结论 未来应以农业生产适宜性、粮食安全紧迫性、农业供需关联性作为耕地弹性利用的原则，在保障口粮自给、提升农业质量的需求前提下，实现农业系统永续利用的目标。

Abstract:

Global food security is facing a series of severe challenges. How to ensure future food system stability and achieve sustainable use of agricultural resources has become the top priority of a country's survival and development. China's “Grain Storage Strategy (GSS)” is a practical way to improve the food security system and to rationally plan the layout of agricultural production. It is urgent to implement in-depth research on GSS in the context of the current unstable international strategic situation and the tight balance of domestic food supply and demand. Accordingly, this paper focused on the research path of “situation judgment, connotation extension, theoretical framework, element analysis, evaluation and decision-making” to elaborate on the key content of GSS implementation goals, positioning, direction, and tasks in the new era. The research results attempted to analyze the practical problems of GSS from the perspective of global change at the system level. Generally, GSS covered four core contents, namely subject behavior, food system, farmland resources, and technical system. It was a “social-resource-management” system optimization project with multi-level, multi-element, and multi-subject characteristics. On this basis, managers could develop a conceptual model for food security assessment with a systemic science method emphasizing the integration of interdisciplinary theory and technology as the core by constructing a theoretical food security space, providing ideas for national-scale food security assessment. Under the premise of ensuring rations self-sufficiency and improving agricultural quality, the goal of sustainable utilization of agricultural systems should be achieved in the future by considering the flexible farmland utilization principles consisting of agricultural production suitability, food security urgency, and supply-demand relevance.