防止玉米成为“第二个大豆”的战略研究——从产业之囿到破局之策

STRATEGIC STUDY TO PREVENT CORN FROM BECOMING “THE SECOND SOYBEAN” *——FROM INDUSTRIAL CONSTRAINTS TO BREAKTHROUGH

关键词:  玉米  第二个大豆  供需缺口  进口激增  产业困境

Key words:  corn  the second soybean  supply and demand gap  import surge  industry dilemma

摘要:

目的 2020年以来，中国玉米市场发生深刻变化，呈现进口首次突破配额、进口市场更加集中、进口规模增长间隔短和价格创记录4个特点；从长期看，中国玉米供应偏紧、价格倒挂，以及进口量增加难以逆转，玉米正在呈现大豆的苗头性迹象。文章旨在宏观研判玉米发展成为“第二个大豆”的可能性，并从战略布局予以防止。方法 从多方面对比了中国玉米产业和大豆产业特征的异同，为回答玉米是否会成为“第二个大豆”这一问题提供了多角度证据。结果 玉米产业形势相对乐观，不会成为“第二个大豆”，但玉米产业自身的发展特性和中国玉米产业现存的困境不容忽视。结论 科学把控，系统谋划，综合施策，从种植结构调整、良种攻关、全程机械化、优势玉米带建设、烘干设施、“走出去”六大工程着手，解决玉米产业技术装备相对落后、竞争力弱、需求增速快等难题，从战略上防止玉米成为第二个大豆。

Abstract:

Since 2020, China's corn market has experienced profound changes, presenting four major characteristics, imports breaking quotas for the first time, a more concentrated import market, short intervals of import scale growth and record prices. In the long term, China's tight corn supply, price inversions and increased imports are difficult to reverse, and corn is showing the first signs of soybeans. The purpose of this thesis is to study and judge the possibility of corn developing into the "second soybean" and prevent it from the strategic layout. Through the comparative analysis method, the similarities and differences between China's corn industry and soybean industry were compared from various aspects, which provided evidence from multiple angles to answer the question of whether corn will become the "second soybean". The results showed that the corn industry was relatively optimistic and would not become the "second soybean", but the development characteristics of the corn industry and the existing difficulties of China's corn industry could not be ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to plan ahead, control scientifically, plan systematically and take comprehensive measures, starting from six major projects, adjustment of planting structure, research on good seeds, full mechanization, construction of advantageous corn belt, drying facilities and "going out" strategy, to solve the problems of relatively backward technology and equipment, weak competitiveness and rapid growth of demand in the corn industry, so as to strategically prevent corn from becoming the second soybean.