农业供给侧改革对中国棉花生产品质变化的影响分析

ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY SIDE REFORM ON THE CHANGE OF COTTON PRODUCTION QUALITY IN CHINA

关键词:  棉花  品质  主成分分析法  供给侧改革  目标价格

Key words:  cotton  quality  principal component analysis  supply side reform  target price

摘要:

目的 棉花目标价格改革是农业供给侧改革的重要组成部分，需要中国棉花生产从供给端提高棉花品质，增强市场对高品质棉花需求的适应性。为了分析目标价格补贴政策执行后，中国各产棉地区棉花品质变化情况，通过对比不同政策背景下的棉花品质，评估目标价格补贴政策对棉花品质改善的影响程度。方法 文章使用主成分分析对2011/2012年度以来中国各产棉地区棉花质量情况数据进行分析，并对比其供给侧改革前后中国各产棉地区棉花质量的变化情况，以深入分析供给侧改革对棉花质量和棉花生产的具体影响。结果 （1）临时收储政策期间，长江流域棉区和西北内陆棉区多数棉花主产区的棉花综合质量得分排名呈现明显的下降趋势，产量和检验量占比较小的黄河流域棉区则呈现出上升趋势，中国棉花整体质量呈现下降趋势。（2）棉花供给侧改革背景下，伴随着2014年棉花目标价格补贴政策的执行，2014/2015年度以后，西北内陆棉区和黄河流域棉花质量综合得分排名呈现出明显的上升趋势，长江流域棉区呈现出明显的下降趋势，中国棉花整体质量呈现上升趋势。结论 棉花供给侧改革对中国棉花品质的影响体现在多个层面，对于生产环节来说，植棉农户更加注重“特性因子”相关指标的提升，棉花加工企业更加注重“加工因子”相关指标的提升，但随着“产量因子”中新疆棉花产量占比的增加，中国棉花综合质量中低于标准级棉花的数量将会增加，在新疆优势棉区饱和的情况下，新疆棉花产量的进一步增加，将会对中国棉花综合质量形成负向影响。

Abstract:

Cotton target price reform is an important part of agricultural supply-side reform, which requires Chinese cotton production to improve cotton quality from the supply side and enhance market adaptability to high-quality cotton demand. In order to analyze the changes of cotton quality in different cotton producing areas of China after the implementation of target price subsidy policy, this research evaluates the impact of target price subsidy policy on cotton quality improvement, and compares the cotton quality under different policy backgrounds. Principal component analysis was used to analyze the cotton quality data of China's cotton-producing areas since 2011/2012, and the changes of cotton quality in China's cotton-producing areas before and after the supply-side reform were compared to analyze the specific impact of supply-side reform on cotton quality and cotton production. The results were showed as follows. During the temporary collection and storage policy, the ranking of cotton comprehensive quality scores in most major cotton producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin and the northwest inland cotton areas showed a significant downward trend, while the ranking of cotton comprehensive quality scores in the Yellow River Basin with a small proportion of yield and inspection showed an upward trend, and the overall quality of cotton in China showed a downward trend. Under the background of cotton supply-side reform, with the implementation of cotton target price subsidy policy in 2014, after 2014/2015, the comprehensive score ranking of cotton quality in the northwest inland cotton area and the Yellow River Basin showed an obvious upward trend, the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin showed a significant downward trend, and the overall quality of cotton in China showed an upward trend. The impact of cotton supply-side reform on China's cotton quality is reflected in multiple levels. For the production link, farmers pay more attention to the improvement of “characteristic factor” related indicators, and cotton processing enterprises pay more attention to the improvement of “processing factor” related indicators. However, with the increase of the proportion of cotton production in Xinjiang in the “yield factor”, the number of cotton below the standard grade in the comprehensive quality of cotton in China will increase. Under the saturation of Xinjiang's dominant cotton area, the further increase of cotton production in Xinjiang will have a negative impact on the comprehensive quality of cotton in China.