中国葡萄种植产业布局的时空变迁及影响因素解析——基于1998—2018年省级面板数据

SPATIAL DYNAIMICS OF GRAPE PLANTATION LAYOUT AND ITS INFLUENCIAL FACTORS IN CHINA——BBASED ON PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA FROM 1998 TO 2018

关键词:  葡萄  农业布局  产业集中度  比较优势

Key words:  grape  agriculture layout  concentration ratio  comparative advantage

摘要:

目的 近年来，我国葡萄种植业发展迅速，产业调整与优化将是其未来发展重点，需要对葡萄生产布局变迁及影响因素开展新的讨论。方法 文章运用描述性分析、产业集中度指数和规模比较优势指数测度1998—2018年我国葡萄生产的布局变动及发展趋势，并构建面板模型从资源禀赋、基础设施、经济因素、技术进步和政策环境五个方面探讨我国葡萄种植格局变动的影响因素。结果 我国葡萄生产的地域格局已初具雏形，且产地正在由集中走向分散，“西迁南移”变动特征显著，具有比较优势的新主产区正逐渐形成；地区自然条件、农村老龄化、灌溉条件、比较效益、非农就业、技术进步和国家政策对我国葡萄种植布局变迁具有显著影响，且不同要素对是否为主产区域的影响存在差异。结论 建议因地制宜地进行葡萄生产布局规划，着力改善生产条件，加大科技投入；进一步拓宽产业链，提升附加值；加强政府支持力度以应对转型结构调整阶段的水果供需变动。

Abstract:

In recent years, the grape planting industry has been developing rapidly in China. The industrial restructuring and optimization will be the key points for the development of grape industry in near future, thus it is necessary to discuss the spatial changes of grape production layout and its influential factors. This paper used descriptive analysis, concentration index and scale comparative advantage index to measure the changes of grape production layout and the trend of development in China from 1998 to 2018. Furthermore, with the use of panel model, present study carried out the analysis on the influential factors of spatial dynamics in grape production, including resource endowments, infrastructure, economic factors, technological progress, and policy issues. The results showed that the regional pattern of grape production in China had been gradually formed, and the production areas were becoming more fragmented in past years. Meanwhile, the development trend showed grape production significantly shifted westward and southward. And the new major production areas with comparative advantages were emerging. Moreover, regional natural resources, aging of rural population, irrigation conditions, comparative benefits, non-agricultural employment, technological progress, and national policies had significant impacts on the changes of grape planting layout in China, and the influences of different factors on the main production areas varied from each other. Based on the results, present study proposed recommendations as follows. Comprehensively planning the layout of grape production according to circumstances, improving the production conditions and increasing investment in corresponding science and technology, expanding the industrial chain, and enhancing the added value of grape production. It is also necessary to strengthen government supports to cope with the structural changes of supply and demand in the transition process of fruit industry.