中国北方苹果连阴雨灾害时空分布特征

SPATIAL—TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF APPLE CONTINUOUS CLOUDY-RAINY WEATHER DISASTER IN NORTHERN CHINA

关键词:  中国北方  苹果  连阴雨  灾害指标  时空分布

Key words:  northern China  apple production  continuous cloudy-rainy weather  disaster indicators  spatial-temporal distribution

摘要:

目的 苹果是一种经济林果，其品质和产量对果园效益和当地经济发展至关重要。连阴雨灾害是影响苹果品质和产量的主要灾害之一。通过分析1982—2018年苹果生长季连阴雨灾害时空分布特征，探讨连阴雨灾害对苹果生长发育的影响，以期为苹果生产布局、产业优化和果园防灾减灾提供指导。方法 文章基于1982—2018年中国北方地区186个站点的气象数据和苹果发育期数据，选取始花—幼果期、着色—成熟期和采收期3个生育阶段，结合连阴雨灾害指标，分析苹果不同生育阶段连阴雨灾害时空变化特征。结果 空间上，苹果各生育阶段连阴雨灾害主要发生在东南区域，着色—成熟期和采收期是灾害发生的主要生育阶段，连阴雨过程均降水量、过程均天数、频率和年均过程次数均呈现由东南至西北逐渐减小的趋势；时间上，1982—2018年连阴雨过程均降水量、连阴雨发生总次数和灾害强度呈现年际间波动。对比3个生育阶段历年连阴雨灾害统计情况可知，多数年份着色—成熟期和采收期连阴雨灾害发生总次数、过程均降水量和灾害强度均高于始花—幼果期，且着色—成熟期和采收期连阴雨灾害变化趋势基本一致。结论 1982—2018年中国北方苹果连阴雨灾害发生概率极小，且灾害发生区域集中，主要受降水量分布和季节变化的影响。

Abstract:

Apple cultivation is an important part of the agricultural industry in China. In recent years, the apple planting area in northern China has increased significantly, and the total apples output has also rapidly increased. The stable production of characteristic apples and disaster prevention and mitigation are of great significance for improving people's living standards and promoting the development of agricultural economy. The quantity and quality of the apples have a profound impact on the profitability of the orchard. The disaster of continuous cloudy-rainy weather is one of the main disasters that affects apple production. Therefore, this paper discussed the influence of continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters on the growth and development of apple through the analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of these disasters during the apple growth seasons from 1982 to 2018. By analyzing these characteristics, the impacts of these disasters on the growth and development of apples were explored, with the goal of providing guidance for the distribution of apple trees, industrial optimization, disaster prevention and damage mitigation, and providing scientific guarantee for the healthy, stable and sustainable development of apple tree growing industry in northern China. In this paper, three apple growth stages were chosen to be studied: flowering to young fruit, coloring to mature, and harvest. Using the data from 186 meteorological stations in northern China from 1982 to 2018 and apple growth data, combined with continuous cloudy-rainy disaster indicators, the spatial-temporal characteristics of continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters on apple production during these growth stages were analyzed. The results were showed as follows. The apples during the coloring to mature and harvest stages were found to be the most susceptible to damage from continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters. Average precipitation, average length of time, and frequency of continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters all showed a trend of gradually decreasing from southeast to northwest China. From 1982 to 2018, the average precipitation, average length of time, and frequency of continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters showed inter-annual fluctuations. Comparing the continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters in three apple growth stages over the years, it can be seen that the average precipitation, average length of time, and frequency of continuous cloudy-rainy disasters during the coloring-mature and harvest stages were higher than that during the flowering to young fruit stage. The changing trends of continuous cloudy-rainy disasters were similar during the coloring-mature and harvest stages. It concludes that the probability of continuous cloudy-rainy weather disasters in northern China from 1982 to 2018 was rare but concentrated due to the distribution and seasonal variations of precipitation.