乌兰察布市及其周边各旗（县）农业产业结构调整研究

STUDY OF STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY IN THE ULANQAB CITY AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS

关键词:  农业产业  结构调整  比较优势  贡献率  回归分析  乌兰察布市

Key words:  agricultural industry  structural adjustment  comparative advantage  contribution rate  regression analysis  Ulanqab

摘要:

目的 通过对乌兰察布市农业产业结构调整的经济效益进行定量和定性的分析研究，为该市农业产业结构调整以及农业产业经济发展提供有益借鉴。方法 文章运用综合比较优势指数测算农业产业的比较优势，构建产值增长贡献率模型分析农业结构调整对农业经济的影响，并对农业产业结构调整与农业经济增长的影响关系进行回归分析。结果 乌兰察布市农业产业的显著综合比较优势主要集中在集宁区、卓资县、四子王旗、察哈尔右翼前旗，并且多数农业产业的规模比较优势相较于产量比较优势更为突出；通过预测模型看出，农业产业结构调整对农业经济增长呈负向贡献率；从回归分析得出，小麦、玉米、莜麦、豆类、马铃薯、油料作物、蔬菜瓜果产值每增加1%会分别为乌兰察布市农业总产值带来0.020%、0.057%、0.015%、0.018%、0.223%、0.847%、0.468%的经济增量。结论 玉米、油料作物、蔬菜瓜果和马铃薯对农业产业总值推动力较强，小麦、豆类和莜麦对农业产业总值的推动力相对较弱；乌兰察布市农业结构调整对农业经济增长的影响不太显著。

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to provide a useful guide for the structure adjustment of the agricultural industry and the economic development of the agricultural industry in the Ulanqab area through both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the economic benefits from the structure adjustment of the agricultural industry. The comprehensive comparative advantage index was adopted to calculate the comparative advantage of the agricultural industry, the contribution rate model of the output value growth was built to analyze the impact of the agricultural structure adjustment on the agricultural economy, and the relationship between the agricultural structure adjustment and agricultural economic growth was analyzed by regression. The results obtained in this study showed that the significant comprehensive comparative advantages of the production of agricultural products in the Ulanqab area were mainly concentrated in Jining district, Zhuozi country, Siziwang banner and Chahar Youyiqianqi, and further the scale comparative advantages for most agricultural products were more prominent than the yield comparative advantages. The forecast model showed that the adjustment of the structure of the agricultural industry had a negative contribution rate to the agricultural economic growth. The regression analysis showed that each 1% increase of the output value of wheat, corn, naked oats, beans, potatoes, oil crops, vegetables and fruits would bring an economic increment of 0.02%, 0.057%, 0.015%, 0.018%, 0.223%, 0.847%, 0.468%, respectively for the Ulanqab agricultural total output value. The main conclusions from this study are that the corn, oil crops, vegetables, fruits and potatoes have a stronger driving force on the total agricultural industry, while wheat, beans and naked oats have a relatively weaker driving force on the total agricultural industry. The influence of agricultural structure adjustment on the agricultural economic growth in the Ulanqab area is not significantly remarkable.