基于偏离-份额分析法的山西省农业经济发展研究

RESEARCH ON AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SHANXI PROVINCE BASED ON ESTEBAN-MARQUILLAS

关键词:  农业经济  产业结构  比较优势  偏离效应  山西省

Key words:  agricultural economy  industrial structure  comparative advantage  deviation effect  Shanxi province

摘要:

目的 分析山西省农业经济增长、结构、竞争力优势度和区域农业资源配置现状及合理性，为乡村振兴产业动力发展提供参考。方法 文章以全国为参照，运用比较优势指数和Esteban-Marquillas偏离份额法拓展模型，综合探析山西省农业经济增长和产业结构现状。结果 （1） 2000—2019年山西农林牧渔业经济总量整体保持增长趋势，农林牧渔业经济增加值占GDP比重在波动中呈下降趋势，与全国同产业比值稳定在1.225%。（2）结构比例演变相对稳定，以种植业为主，牧业为辅，渔业林业比重低；结构调整以种植业略下降，林业略提升为主要特征。农作物以谷物、豆类、薯类具有比较优势，尤以谷子、胡麻籽、高粱、绿豆、红小豆比较优势明显，明显高于全国水平。（3）偏离效应分析显示：种植业规模增长明显，但结构、竞争力、资源配置均处于劣势；林业结构和资源配置合理，但规模小，不具竞争力；牧业发展规模、竞争力、资源配置优势均较好，但结构尚不合理；渔业产业规模小，增长优势不明显，结构发展程度低，竞争力差。（4）动态变化中份额分量演变高度一致，种植业和牧业呈现明显的正负交替和此消彼长态势。农业经济增长优势整体表现为由南向北依次减弱的趋势，各地区结构偏离效应均为负，份额和结构分量区域间差异较小；竞争和配置分量偏离效应空间分布复杂，差异较大。结论 与全国相比，研究期内山西农业经济增长趋势不明显，竞争力低于全国水平。其中种植业和牧业结构需要进一步优化，提高资源配置合理性；林业结构和资源基础好，但发展较晚，亟待提高竞争力；渔业规模小，发展程度尚低。不同地区之间的协同性较差，可通过优化结构和分工，提高区域协作能力。

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the agricultural economic growth, structure, competitive advantage and the present situation and rationality of regional agricultural resource allocation in Shanxi province, so as to provide reference for the development of industrial power for rural revitalization. With reference to the whole country, the comparative advantage index and Esteban-Marquillas deviation share expansion model were used to comprehensively analyze the current situation of agricultural economic growth and industrial structure in Shanxi Province. The results were listed as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, the total economic output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Shanxi maintained an overall growth trend, the proportion of economic added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in GDP showed a downward trend in fluctuations, and the ratio of the same industry to the whole country was stable at 1.225%. (2) The evolution of structural proportion was relatively stable, dominated by planting industry, supplemented by animal husbandry, and the proportion of fishery and forestry was low; structural adjustment was characterized by a slight decline in planting industry and a slight improvement in forestry. Crops such as grains, beans and potatoes had comparative advantages, especially millet, flaxseed, sorghum, mung bean and adzuki bean, which were obviously higher than the national level. (3)The deviation effect analysis showed that the scale of planting industry increased obviously, but the structure, competitiveness and resource allocation were all at a disadvantage; the forestry structure and resource allocation were reasonable, but the scale was small and the forestry was not competitive; the development scale, competitiveness and resource allocation advantages of animal husbandry were good, but the structure was not reasonable; the fishery industry was small in scale, the growth advantage was not obvious, the structural development degree was low, and the competitiveness was poor. (3) In the dynamic change, the evolution of share component was highly consistent, and planting and animal husbandry showed obvious positive and negative alternation and growth and decline trend. The advantage of agricultural economic growth showed a weakening trend from south to north, the structural deviation effect of each region was negative, the regional differences of share and structural components were small, and the spatial distribution of competition and allocation component deviation effect was complex and different. In summary, compared with the whole country, the growth trend of agricultural economy in Shanxi during the study period is not obvious, and its competitiveness is lower than the national level. Among them, the structure of planting and animal husbandry needs to be further optimized to improve the rationality of resource allocation; the structure and resource foundation of forestry are good, but the development is relatively late, so it is urgent to improve competitiveness; the scale of fishery is small, and the degree of development is still low. The cooperation between different regions was poor, and the ability of regional cooperation can be improved by optimizing the structure and division of labor.