三江平原典型流域耕地利用水土资源匹配时空演变——以挠力河流域为例

SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MATCHING OF CULTIVATED LAND IN TYPICAL BASIN OF SANJIANG PLAIN——A CASE STUDY OF NAOLI RIVER BASIN

关键词:  水土资源匹配  时空演变  Hurst指数  三江平原  挠力河流域

Key words:  land and water resources matching  spatiotemporal dynamics  Hurst index  Sanjiang Plain  Naoli River Basin

摘要:

目的 微观尺度分析耕地利用水土资源匹配时空动态及其变化趋势，旨在为高标准基本农田建设和耕地利用水土资源优化配置提供科学指导。方法 文章以三江平原挠力河流域为研究区，运用耕地水资源有效供给量与耕地需水量的比值法，探析2000—2020年研究区耕地利用水土资源匹配的时空动态；借助Theil-Sen趋势分析法和Hurst指数分析法，对研究区耕地利用水土资源匹配的空间变化趋势及其未来变化趋势持续性进行定量化分析。结果 （1）时序变化上，作物全生育期耕地利用水土资源匹配综合指数的频数分布呈双峰分布特征且其中轴线逐渐向高值移动。（2）空间动态上，作物全生育期耕地利用水土资源匹配呈现出空间异质性增强的变化特征，其相对高值区由流域中游东部向中游西部和下游西部转移，并且其Sen趋势度大于0的耕地面积比例达到94%以上。（3）未来变化趋势上，作物全生育期耕地利用水土资源匹配相对强持续性升高的耕地面积比例为93.73%，主要分布在流域中游西部和下游西部的大部分区域。结论 受气候变化和人工调控的影响，虽研究区作物全生育期耕地利用水土资源匹配程度较低，但在时空动态上均呈现出明显升高的变化特征，且呈现持续性升高的未来变化趋势，结果可为优化调配水土资源时空耦合关系提供决策依据。

Abstract:

The micro-scale analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics and variation trend of land and water resources matching of cultivated land is aimed to provide scientific guidance for the construction of high standard basic farmland and the optimal allocation of land and water resources of cultivated land. Naoli River Basin is a typical basin of Sanjiang Plain. Spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of the integrated matching of land and water resources of cultivated land during the whole crop growth stage in Naoli River Basin from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed at the micro scale. The spatial variation trend and the sustainability of future variation trend of the integrate matching of land and water resources of cultivated land in the study area were quantitatively analyzed with the method of Theil-Sen trend analysis and Hurst index analysis. The results were showed as follows. (1) In the aspect of time series change, the frequency distribution of the integrate index of land and water resources matching of cultivated land showed the characteristic of bimodal distribution and its central axis gradually moved to high value. (2)In the aspect of spatiotemporal dynamics, the integrate index of land and water resources matching of cultivated land in the study area showed the variation characteristics of enhanced spatial heterogeneity, and the relative high value area shifted from the east of the middle reaches to the west of the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Meanwhile the proportion of the area with the Sen trend degree greater than 0 reached more than 94%, which was characterized by the trend of significant upward. (3) In the aspect of change trend in the future, the integrate index of land and water resources matching of cultivated land showed a trend of continuous increase in the future, and the proportion of cultivated land area with relatively strong continuous increase in the total area of cultivated land was 93.73%, which was mainly distributed in the west of the middle reaches and lower reaches of the basin. In summary, affected by climate change and artificial regulation, although the matching degree of land and water resources of cultivated land in the study area is low, the spatiotemporal dynamics shows the characteristics of significant increase, and shows a continuous increase in the future trend. The results could provide the decision-making basis for optimizing the spatiotemporal coupling relationship of land and water resources.