农业绿色发展模式的农业保险需求引致效应——基于荔枝种植户的经验分析

THE DERIVED EFFECT OF THE AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE DEMAND ON THE AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT MODEL——AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE LITCHI FARMERS

关键词:  农业绿色发展  绿色种植  农业保险需求  排序Logit模型  引致需求

Key words:  green agriculture development  green planting  agriculture insurance demand  ordered Logit model  derived effect

摘要:

目的 研究农业绿色发展模式引致的农业风险规避需求及其特点，提出完善和推广农业保险、推进农业绿色发展的政策启示。方法 文章将农户农业保险需求分为5个等级，以采用生物防控和非化学生长调节技术来衡量农业绿色发展模式，然后构建排序Logit模型，利用2018—2019年国家荔枝龙眼产业技术体系的调查数据证明农业绿色发展模式和农业保险需求之间引致效应，并借助OLS、2SLS、LIML和分位数回归法检验了模型的稳健性。结果 （1）排序模型中农业绿色发展模式的系数均在1%的显著性水平上显著，说明农户的农业绿色发展模式会引致显著的农业保险需求，年龄、种植经验、合作组织、种植规模的系数也显著不为0，体现出种植规模较大、种植时间较长、参加合作组织的非老年人农户对农业保险需求影响较明显；（2）0.50分位数回归的农业绿色发展模式系数值最大，表明农业绿色发展模式引致的农业保险需求往往处于中等水平。结论 政府政策应充分考虑和满足农户农业绿色发展模式中的风险规避需求，才能深入推进农业绿色发展；而促进农业绿色发展的农业保险费率标准与推广策略也需要充分考虑农户种植规模、种植经验、合作组织、农户年龄和中等水平的农业保险需求等因素。

Abstract:

This article aims to study the agricultural risk avoidance demand and its characteristics caused by the agricultural green development model, and put forward policy enlightenment for perfecting and popularizing agricultural insurance and promoting agricultural green development. The agricultural insurance demands of farmers were divided into five levels, and biological prevention and control and non-chemical growth regulation technology was used to measure the agricultural green development model, then based on the survey data of the national litchi and Longan industry technology system from 2018 to 2019, an ordered logit model was built to prove the effects between agricultural green development model and agricultural insurance demand, and finally, the robustness was tested with the help of OLS, 2SLS, LIML and quantile regression. The results were listed as follows. The coefficients of the agricultural green development model in the ordered model were all significant at the 1% level, indicating that the agricultural green development model of farmers would lead to significant agricultural insurance demands. The coefficients of age, planting experience, cooperative organization, and planting scale were also not significant equal to 0, which reflected that the large scale of planting, longer planting time, and non-elderly farmers participating in the cooperative organization had significant impacts on the demand for agricultural insurance.(2) The coefficient of the agricultural green development model regression with the 0.50 quantile was the largest, indicating the demand for agricultural insurance resulting in the agricultural green development model was often at a medium level. In summary, the government should fully consider the risk aversion needs of farmers in the green agricultural development model in order to further promote the green development of agriculture. The agricultural insurance premium rate standards and promotion strategies to promote the green development of agriculture also need to fully consider the scale of farming, planting experience, and other factors such as cooperative organization, farmer's age and medium-level agricultural insurance demands.