农业空间匹配及其经济增长效应研究——以长三角为例

RESEARCH ON THE AGRICULTURE SPACE MATCHING AND ITS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECT——A CASE STUDY OF YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

关键词:  农业空间匹配  长三角  水土资源  空间滞后模型  产业空间集聚

Key words:  agriculture and space matching  Yangtze River Delta  water and soil resource  spatial lag model  industrial spatial agglomeration

摘要:

目的 产业空间匹配是产业发展的重要影响因素，产业发展与区域优势要素相匹配有助于缩小地区间经济水平差距，达到均衡发展状态。方法 文章从水土资源匹配和产业相对优势匹配两个角度定义了农业空间匹配质量，以长三角为例量化该地区41个地级市的匹配质量，随后采用空间滞后模型对农业空间匹配质量的经济增长效应进行了实证分析。结果 结果显示农业水土资源匹配度对长三角农业经济增长效应为-0.146 4，空间计量模型的空间滞后影响力为0.27。长三角各地区农业水土资源匹配状况总体趋势上表现出先提高后降低的趋势，2011—2015年达到最大值。结论 水土资源匹配度对长三角农业经济增长具有显著的负向影响，而相对优势匹配度对农业经济增长的影响不显著。增长模型中体现了空间的适应性，形成了良好的产业空间集聚。科技、劳动力和城市化都是其主要的驱动力，推动着水土资源匹配度在不同时期的变化。

Abstract:

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China, the demand for water and soil resources for industrial development and residents' life is also increasing, which leads to the unbalanced development of regional agricultural economy, unreasonable structure of water and soil resources, and the occupation of resources by various industries and other problems are becoming more and more prominent. Industry and space matching has significant influence on industrial development. The matching between industrial development and the regional comparative advantage of production elements contribute to narrow the economy gap and achieve balanced development. We defined the concept of agriculture and space matching from two perspectives: water and soil utilization spatial matching and industrial relative advantage matching. And we calculated the two types matching based on the panel data of 41 cities in Yangtze River Delta. Then, we estimated the economic development effect of matching quality by spatial lag econometric model. The results showed that the effect of the matching degree of agriculture and water and soil resources on the agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta was -0.146 4, and the spatial lag influence of the spatial econometric model was 0.27. The overall trend of agriculture-land and water resources matching in all regions of the Yangtze River Delta showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and reached the maximum value during 2011-2015. In summary, the matching degree of water and soil resources has a significant negative effect on the agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta, while the matching degree of comparative advantage has no significant effect on the agricultural economic growth. The adaptability of space is reflected in the growth model, which forms a good industrial spatial agglomeration. Science and technology, labor force and urbanization are the main driving forces, which promote the change of water resource-environment matching degree in different periods.