精准扶贫政策对农户贫困脆弱性的影响研究——来自准自然实验的经验证据

THE IMPACT OF TARGETED POVERTY ALLEVIATION POLICY ON THE POVERTY VULNERABILITY OF FARMERS——AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM QUASI NATURAL EXPERIMENT

关键词:  精准扶贫  贫困脆弱性  准自然实验  动态效应  分位数DID

Key words:  targeted poverty alleviation  poverty vulnerability  Quasi natural experiment  dynamic effect  quantile DID

摘要:

目的 科学评估精准扶贫政策对农户贫困脆弱性的影响具有重要意义。方法 文章基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）的4期追踪数据，运用VEP法测算了我国农户的贫困脆弱性，然后运用双重差分法研究了精准扶贫政策对农户贫困脆弱性的影响效果及中介效应机制。结果 （1）近年来我国农户的贫困脆弱性显著降低，中西部地区农户的贫困脆弱性比东部地区高；（2）精准扶贫政策显著降低了农户贫困脆弱性，政策效应明显，而且随着时间的推移，政策效果愈发显著；（3）实证估计结果通过了连续型DID法与PSM-DID法的稳健性检验；（4）异质性分析表明，精准扶贫政策对农户脆弱性的作用在中西部地区比在东部地区更为显著，对贫困户脆弱性的影响大于对非贫困户脆弱性的影响；（5）中介效应机制分析表明，精准扶贫政策可以通过提高农户社会资本的方式降低其贫困脆弱性。结论 在贫困状况较为严重的地区，应保持帮扶政策持续稳定，降低农户的贫困脆弱性。在识别贫困户和制定扶贫政策时，需关注未来可能陷入贫困的农户，提升其应对外界风险冲击的能力，同时应注重发挥各种社会组织与非正式制度的作用，形成多方面减贫合力。

Abstract:

It is of great significance to scientifically evaluate the impact of targeted Poverty Alleviation Policies on farmers' poverty vulnerability. Based on the four phase tracking data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper used the VEP method to calculate the poverty vulnerability of farmers in China, and then used the double difference method to study the impact effect and intermediary effect mechanism of targeted poverty alleviation policy on farmers' poverty vulnerability. The results were found as follows. In recent years, the poverty vulnerability of farmers in China had decreased significantly, and the poverty vulnerability of farmers in the central and western regions was higher than that in the eastern region. The targeted poverty alleviation policy significantly reduced the poverty vulnerability of farmers, and the policy effect was obvious, and the policy effect became more and more obvious with the passage of time. The empirical estimation results passed the robustness test of continuous DID method and PSM-DID method. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the effect of targeted poverty alleviation policy on farmers' vulnerability was more significant in the central and western regions than in the eastern regions, and the impact on the vulnerability of poor households was greater than that of non poor households. The analysis of intermediary effect mechanism showed that the targeted poverty alleviation policy could reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers by improving their social capital. It concludes that in areas with serious poverty, we should maintain sustained and stable assistance policies to reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers. When identifying poor households and formulating poverty alleviation policies, we should pay attention to the farmers who may fall into poverty in the future and improve their ability to deal with external risks and shocks. At the same time, we should pay attention to giving full play to the role of various social organizations and informal systems to form a multi-faceted joint force for poverty reduction.