中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易效率及潜力研究

RESEARCH ON THE EFFICIENCY AND POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IMPORT TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND RCEP COUNTRIES

关键词:  RCEP  中国  农产品进口  贸易效率和潜力  随机前沿引力模型

Key words:  RCEP  China  agricultural product import  trade efficiency and potential  stochastic frontier gravity model

摘要:

目的 文章基于2010—2019年中国与区域全面经济伙伴关系协定国家（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership， 以下简称RCEP国家）农产品进口贸易的面板数据，从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易国别数据切入，研究中国同RCEP国家的农产品进口贸易效率及潜力，为中国与RCEP国家农产品进口贸易的深入发展提出相关政策建议。方法 采用随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析。结果 中国自RCEP国家进口农产品的平均效率为0.54；中国与RCEP国家经济规模、班轮运输连通性指数和货币自由度等因素提升了进口贸易效率，人口规模和贸易自由度等因素阻碍了进口贸易效率的提升；从国别差异看，中国自澳大利亚和新西兰农产品进口贸易潜力和可拓展空间较大；从农产品分类看，4类农产品的进口贸易效率较高；总体而言，进口效率与潜力存在较大的国别异质性，增长拓展空间有待进一步释放。结论 中国应进一步加强同RCEP国家的海陆航基础设施建设等合作，扩大同RCEP国家，特别是贸易效率低下而未来潜力巨大的新西兰等国的农产品进口贸易。

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of agricultural product import trade between China and regional comprehensive economic partnership( RCEP) countries from 2010 to 2019, and starting from the trade scale, trade structure and trade country data, this research aims to study the efficiency and potential, so as to provide relevant policy suggestions for further development of China's agricultural product import trade with RCEP countries. And the stochastic frontier gravity model was used to make an empirical analysis. The results were showed as follows. The average efficiency of China's import of agricultural products from RCEP was 0.54, and factors such as China and RCEP countries economic scale, liner transport connectivity index and monetary freedom were beneficial to the promotion of import trade efficiency, and factors such as population size and trade freedom hindered the advancement of import trade efficiency. From the perspective of country differences, China's agricultural imported from Australia and New Zealand had greater potential and room for expansion. From the perspective of agricultural products classification, the import trade efficiency of four types of agricultural products was relatively high. In general, the import efficiency and potential had a large country heterogeneity, and the room for growth and expansion needed to be further released. So, China should further strengthen cooperation with RCEP countries in the construction of marine, land and aviation infrastructure, and expand agricultural import trade with RCEP countries, especially New Zealand and other countries with low trade efficiency and huge potential in the future.