农业保险对农业固碳增效的影响及机制研究

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE AND MECHANISM OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON SEQUESTRATION EFFICIENCY

关键词:  农业保险  种植专业化  农业技术进步  环境规制  农业固碳增效

Key words:  agricultural insurance  planting specialization  agricultural technology progress  environmental regulation  agricultural carbon sequestration efficiency

摘要:

目的 探究农业保险通过改变农户生产行为，进而影响农业固碳效果的作用路径。方法 文章基于2008—2019年中国30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）的种植业数据，构建有调节的并行多重中介效应模型，分析农业保险发展水平对农业净碳汇的作用机制。结果 （1）从总体来看，当前农业保险的发展抑制了农业固碳效果，具体表现为农业保险增加了农业碳排放，而对农业碳吸收没有显著影响；（2）农业保险对农业净碳汇的影响有两条路径，一是农业保险通过提升种植专业化水平促进农业净碳汇，二是农业保险通过促进农业技术进步抑制农业净碳汇，但环境规制会削弱农业技术进步对农业净碳汇的抑制作用；（3）在异质性分析中，西部农业保险发展的农业固碳效果要好于东部，中部农业保险发展对农业固碳效果没有显著影响。结论 （1）提高对专业化规模生产主体的农业保险保费补贴比例，以放大农业保险对农业净碳汇的促进作用；（2）设计绿色农业产品保险，引导农业生产者从事绿色农业生产经营，减少一般机械投入对农业净碳汇产生的负向影响；（3）提高农业保险政策与环境保护政策的配合程度，在发展农业保险的同时，加强农业环境保护政策的执行力度。

Abstract:

This study aims to explore how agricultural insurance affects agricultural carbon sequestration by changing farmers' production behaviors, and then affects the path of agricultural carbon sequestration efficiency. Based on the planting industry data of 30 provinces(cities, rigions) in China from 2008 to 2019, this study constructed a moderated multiple parallel mediation effect model to analyze the mechanism by which the development level of agricultural insurance affected the agricultural net carbon sink. The results were showed as follows. (1) Generally, the current development of agricultural insurance inhibited the agricultural carbon sequestration. And the specific manifestation was that agricultural insurance increased agricultural carbon emissions, but had no significant impact on agricultural carbon absorption. (2) There were two paths for agricultural insurance to affect agricultural net carbon sink: one was that agricultural insurance promoted agricultural net carbon sink by improving the specialization level of planting, and the other was that agricultural insurance limited agricultural net carbon sink by enhancing the progress of agricultural technology, but environmental regulation would weaken the inhibitory effect of agricultural technological progress on the agricultural net carbon sink. (3) In the heterogeneity analysis, the agricultural carbon sequestration effect of agricultural insurance in western China was better than that in eastern China, while agricultural insurance in central China had no significant effect on agricultural carbon sequestration. In summary, firstly, increasing the proportion of agricultural insurance premium subsidies for specialized large-scale production entities to amplify the role of agricultural insurance in promoting agricultural net carbon sink. Secondly, designing green agricultural product insurance and guiding agricultural producers to engage in green agricultural production and operation, so as to reduce the negative impact of general machinery input on agricultural net carbon sink. Thirdly, improving the degree of cooperation between agricultural insurance policies and environmental protection policies to strengthen the implementation of agricultural environmental protection policies while developing agricultural insurance.