我国粮食主产区粮食虚拟水流动综合效益评价

COMPREHENSIVE BENEFIT EVALUATION OF VIRTUAL WATER FLOW OF GRAIN IN CHINA'S MAIN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS

关键词:  粮食贸易  虚拟水  综合效益评价  社会公平法  TOPSIS评价法

Key words:  grain trade  virtual water  comprehensive benefit evaluation  social justice law  TOPSIS evaluation method

摘要:

目的 将我国13个粮食主产区作为研究对象，选取2018年小麦（包括春小麦与冬小麦）、玉米、大豆、水稻4种粮食作物的相关数据，并从经济、生态、社会三方面确定了8个指标分析了粮食虚拟水流动对我国粮食主产区各方面的影响。方法 文章运用社会公平法与彭曼公式得出我国粮食主产区粮食虚拟水净流出量，在此基础上，通过设置经济、生态、社会三方面效益指标，量化粮食虚拟水流动带来的各方面效益，并使用熵权法以及TOPSIS评价法综合评价三方面的综合效益，以更加全面的视角分析了粮食虚拟水流动对各方面的影响。结果 （1）2018年我国粮食虚拟水输出区主要分布在我国的东北、华北以及长江中下游地区，输入区则主要集中于东部沿海地区，其中粮食虚拟水净流出量最高的是黑龙江，达到了5 072m³；（2）三方面评价指标中生态效益在所占权重达到了0.47，经济效益次之，权重为0.31；（3）2018年我国粮食虚拟水净流入地区的流动综合效益均值为0.60，明显高于粮食虚拟水净流出地区的0.49。结论 总体来看，2018年我国粮食主产区间粮食虚拟水流动整体呈现出由北向南的逆向流动格局，其中生态效益是影响粮食虚拟水流动综合效益中最关键的因素。虽然我国粮食主产区整体粮食虚拟水流动综合效益总体情况中等，但净流入区与净流出区差距明显，针对以上结论提出解决我国粮食虚拟水流动负面效应的措施建议。

Abstract:

Taking 13 major grain producing areas in China as research objects, the relevant data of wheat (including spring wheat and winter wheat), corn, soybean and rice in 2018 were selected, this research analyzed the influence of grain virtual water flow on the major grain producing areas in China by 8 indexes from three aspects of economy, ecology and society. And it used the social justice law and Penman's Formula to obtain the net outflow of virtual water from the major grain producing areas in China. On this basis, by setting economic, ecological and social benefit indexes, it quantified the benefits brought by grain virtual water flow in all aspects, and comprehensively evaluated the comprehensive benefits of the three aspects by using entropy weight method and TOPSIS evaluation method, and analyzed the effects of grain virtual water flow on all aspects from a more comprehensive perspective. The results were showed as follows. In 2018, the output areas of grain virtual water in China were mainly distributed in Northeast China, North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while the input areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. Heilongjiang province had the highest net outflow of grain virtual water, which reached 5 072m³. Among the three evaluation indexes, the index weight of ecological benefit reached 0.47, followed by economic benefit with the index weight of 0.31. In 2018, the average flow comprehensive benefit of the net inflow of grain virtual water was 0.60, which was significantly higher than that of the net outflow of grain virtual water (0.49). On the whole, the grain virtual water flow among major grain producing areas in China presents a reverse flow pattern from north to south in 2018, and ecological benefit was the most critical factor affecting the comprehensive benefit of grain virtual water flow. Although the overall comprehensive benefits of grain virtual water flow in major grain producing areas in China are medium, there is a significant gap between the net inflow area and the net outflow area. In view of the above conclusions, measures and suggestions to solve the negative effects of grain virtual water flow in China are put forward.