基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

EXPORT DYNAMICS OF CHINA’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT BASED ON BINARY MARGIN AND TRADE RELATIONSHIP

关键词:  农产品出口  出口动态  集约边际  扩展边际  贸易关系

Key words:  agricultural export  export dynamics  intensive margin  extensive margin  trade relationship

摘要:

目的 文章基于动态的视角，测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化，对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。方法 基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据，测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数，对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述，并进行聚类分析。结果 （1）从出口动态整体情况看，农产品出口增长迅速，集约边际占据主导，贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看，在出口源地维度，东部省份出口优势明显，空间格局高度集中，近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度，东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地，集聚水平长期下降，原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时，中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似，绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀，东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。结论 为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长，既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长，也要积极扩展新贸易联系；为了优化农产品出口格局，要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新市场，进一步融入农产品出口进程；为了降低出口风险，要采取出口市场多元化战略，避免城市间农产品出口同质化竞争。

Abstract:

The export dynamics of agricultural products include both binary margins (extensive and intensive margin) and trade relations, which are essentially the same. However, few studies have combined these two, and the huge regional differences within China are ignored. Based on the dynamic perspective, this paper measured the trade relationship and binary margin of Chinese agricultural exports in the dimension of "city-product-destination country". This paper used the Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) from 2000 to 2016 to calculate the location Gini coefficient, and then studied the overall situation of agricultural exports and the temporal and spatial distribution of the dimensions of export source and destination countries. It was found that Chinese agricultural exports are developing rapidly, and the intensive margin played a leading role in both trade and trade growth. As for the trade relationship, the number of entries and exits was very large, which illustrated the instability of Chinese agricultural export. From the dimension of export source, eastern provinces had obvious advantages in export and the spatial pattern was highly concentrated, especially Shandong province. The degree of agglomeration had decreased in recent years. The agricultural export trade volume of China and the "entry" trade relationship coefficient had decreased, showing a diffusion trend from the eastern coast to the central and western regions. For the dimension of export destination countries, East Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and Western Europe were not only the main destinations of Chinese agricultural exports, but also the main areas of export expansion. "Entry" trade relations had made significant breakthroughs in West Asia and Africa. The degree of agglomeration had declined for a long time. This was because the export pattern had switched from "one super" to "many strong", and China exported to more countries without export before. The export between the eastern region and East Asia, Southeast Asia and North America led the export volume and export expansion. The export expansion structure among Chinese cities was highly similar. The expansion marginal trade of most cities was evenly distributed in the world. East and Southeast Asia were the main export expansion markets, and a few cities are dominated by a single regional market. Thus, to achieve the stable growth of agricultural exports, we have to maintain the trade relations, achieve the growth of existing trade relations, and actively expand new trade links. Moreover, we need to accelerate the diversification of export varieties and market diversification, and avoid the homogeneous competition of agricultural exports between cities, to reduce export risks.