农业现代化发展水平时空特征：分异性与集聚性基于山东省2010—2019年数据分析

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL:DIFFERENTIATION AND AGGLOMERATIONBASED ON DATA ANALYSIS OF SHANDONG PROVINCE FROM 2010 TO 2019

关键词:  农业现代化  同类集聚  空间异常  低水平陷阱  区域增长极

Key words:  agricultural modernization  conglomeration  space abnormal  low level trap  regional growth pole

摘要:

目的 探索农业现代化发展水平时空特征以利于加快推进农业现代化进程，全面推进乡村振兴。方法 文章构建包含农业物质装备、科技信息、产业建设、经营管理建设、绿色发展、产出效益和农村现代化七方面的指标体系，运用TOPSIS-ESDA方法，基于2010—2019年山东省数据，研究农业现代化发展水平的时空特征。结果 （1）时间维度上，农业现代化发展水平指数高值地区波动性较大，低值地区则陷入“低水平陷阱”；（2）空间层面上，呈现从高值向低值地区梯次转移，低值地区长期处于锁定状态；（3）时空角度上，整体呈现显著的同类集聚，但高值和低值接壤区域存在“空心”和“极化”现象。结论 可以在高值地区发展资金和技术集约化、信息化、知识化农业；低值地区继续完善基础设施建设，根据因地制宜原则提高农业现代化发展水平；同时，增强区域间交流合作，积极培育低值集聚区域增长极。

Abstract:

To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of agricultural modernization development level is to accelerate the process of agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization in an all-round way. This paper constructed an index system including agricultural material equipment, science and technology informatization, agricultural industry construction, operation and management construction, green development, output benefit and rural modernization, and based on the data of Shandong province in 2010-2019, and assigned objective weight by using the entropy method, then calculated the score of agricultural modernization development level by adopting TOPSIS method, and finally studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural modernization development level with the exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA）method. Three conclusions were drawn based on the above methods. Firstly, in terms of time dimension, the high-level of agricultural modernization development areas had high volatility, and low-level areas fell into "low level trap". Secondly, on the spatial dimension, it showed a hierarchical transfer from high-level to low-level area, and the low-level areas were locked for a long time; Finally, in terms of space-time perspective, the whole area was similar to the same kind, but the areas of the high and low-level's border had "hollow" and "polarization" phenomena. Therefore, we should develop information and knowledge-based agriculture in high-level areas, and improve the infrastructure construction in low -level areas and develop the level of agricultural modernization according to the principle of local conditions; Meanwhile, we should strengthen regional communication and cooperation between high and low-level areas, and actively cultivate the growth pole of low-level agglomeration regions.