基于二元Logistic与ISM模型的农户地膜回收的影响因素分析——以新疆为例

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS’ PLASTIC FILM RECYCLING BEHAVIOR BASED ON BINARY LOGISTIC-ISM MODELING*—A CASE STUDY IN XINJIANG, CHINA

关键词:  地膜回收  农户行为  二元Logistic模型  解释结构模型（ISM）  影响因素  新疆

Key words:  plastic film recycling  farmer’s behavior  binary Logistic modeling  interpretive structural modeling (ISM)  influencing factors  Xinjiang

摘要:

目的 地膜覆盖技术对于我国粮食安全保障意义重大，但目前残膜污染的回收治理效果仍不理想。农户是地膜回收过程中的关键主体，分析农户地膜回收行为的影响因素对于推动残膜回收，促进农膜残留污染治理与地膜覆盖技术绿色可持续应用具有重要意义。方法 文章基于新疆333份农户的调研数据，运用二元Logistic与解释结构模型（ISM）相结合的分析方法，分析了农户地膜回收行为的影响因素，以及影响因素之间的关联性层次性。结果 （1）二元Logistic模型结果显示：地膜使用年限、耕地面积、耕地细碎化程度对农户地膜回收行为具有显著负向作用。地膜厚度、再次利用价值认知、残膜危害了解途径多寡、环境监督、回收企业、回收补贴对农户地膜回收行为具有显著正向作用。（2）ISM模型结果显示：补贴是深层根源因素，是否有补贴影响当地回收企业补贴的建立；地膜使用年限、地膜厚度、回收企业、环境监督为中层间接因素；耕地面积、耕地细碎化程度、回收后再次利用价值认知、残膜危害了解途径多寡为表层直接根源因素。结论 农户地膜回收影响因素可归纳为“两驱动，三路径”。为改善农户地膜回收行为，促进地膜覆盖技术绿色发展，应保障地膜质量，推动农村土地流转，发展机械化回收技术，同时完善回收体系，拓宽农户的了解渠道。

Abstract:

The technology of plastic film covering is of great significance to the development of food security in China, but the recycling effect of film residue is not in ideal condition yet. Farmers, as the critical subjects in the plastic film recycling process, the analysis of their recycling behavior plays an important role in the prospects of promoting film recycling, solving plastic film pollution, and improving the green and sustainability of plastic film covering. Based on the survey data from 333 farmers in Xinjiang, the binary Logistic modeling and the ISM modeling were used to analyze the influencing factors of farmers' recycling behavior and the correlation between the influence factors in this study. The results of the binary Logistic model revealed that the period of using plastic film, the land area of cultivation, and the degree of fragmentation had significantly negative effects on farmers' recycling behavior of the plastic film. However, plastic film thickness, the recognition of reuse value, the number of ways to understand residual film hazards, environmental supervision, recycling enterprises, and recycling subsidies played significantly positive effects on farmers' plastic film recycling behavior. Besides, the ISM model results showed that the subsidy was the deep-depth factor, which affected the allowance establishment of local recycling enterprises. In addition, the period of using plastic film, plastic film thickness, recycling enterprises, and environmental supervision were middle indirect factors. Furthermore, the cultivated land area, the cultivated land degree of fragmentation, the recognition of reuse value, and the number of ways to understand residual film hazards were the direct deep factors. In conclusion, the influencing factors are summarized as "two driving factors and three paths". In order to improve farmers' plastic film recycling behavior and promote the green development of plastic film recycling technology, we should ensure the quality of plastic film, promote rural land circulation, develop mechanized technology, improve the recycling system, and broaden farmers' channels of understanding.