中国水产品出口动力的三元边际分析

A TERNARY MARGINAL ANALYSIS ON THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF CHINA'S AQUATIC PRODUCTS EXPORT

关键词:  中国  水产品出口  三元边际分析  动力  大数据  分解分析

Key words:  China  aquatic products export  ternary marginal analysis  driving force  big data  decomposition analysis

摘要:

目的 通过分析2000年以来中国水产品出口增长的主要动力及其结构性变化，明确中国水产品出口的变化趋势，为相关部门调整政策、适应国际水产品市场的新变化提供依据。方法 基于2000—2020年联合国贸易数据库中的113万条大数据，文章采用三元边际分析方法对中国水产品的出口增长动力进行了多维度的分解分析。结果 基于中国水产品出口增长的主要动力的阶段性转换，可以将2000—2020年分为3个阶段。第一阶段是2000—2007年，中国水产品的出口增长的主要动力是出口数量增加，其中初级水产品在出口数量增加的同时出口价格也在提高，而加工水产品在出口数量增长的同时出口种类也在增加。第二阶段是2007—2015年，中国水产品出口增长的主要动力由出口数量增加转变为出口价格提高，初级水产品和加工水产品的主要动力都是出口价格提高。第三阶段是2015—2020年，这一时期中国水产品出口出现瓶颈，增长乏力。结论 中国水产品出口增长的主要动力在不同时期和不同品种之间存在结构性差异。中国应采取多种措施提升水产品出口竞争力：一是以提升水产品质量为主要抓手促进出口；二是加快发展加工水产业，不断延伸和拓宽水产品产业链；三是深入分析地区差异，更加重视对发展中国家的出口。

Abstract:

By analyzing the main driving force and structural changes of China's aquatic product export growth since 2000, this paper defines the change trend of China's aquatic product export, so as to provide a basis for relevant departments to adjust policies and adapt to the new changes of the international aquatic product market. Based on the big data of more than 1.13 million in the United Nations Comtrade Database from 2000 to 2020, this paper used the ternary marginal analysis method to decompose and analyze the export growth momentum of China's aquatic products in multiple dimensions. Based on the transformation of the main driving force of China's aquatic product export growth, the period from 2000 to 2020 could be divided into three stages. The first stage was from 2000 to 2007. The main driving force of China's export growth of aquatic products was the increase of export quantity. For the primary aquatic products, the export price of was also increasing. For the processed aquatic products, the export types were increasing at the same time. In the second stage from 2007 to 2015, the main driving force of China's export growth of aquatic products changed from the increase of export quantity to the increase of export price, the main driving force of primary aquatic products and processed aquatic products was also the increase of export price. The third stage was from 2015 to 2020. During this period, China's aquatic products export had a bottleneck and weak growth. In summary, the main driving force of China's aquatic product export growth had structural differences in different periods and different varieties. So, China should take a variety of measures to enhance the export competitiveness of aquatic products. Firstly, to improve the quality of aquatic products as the main focus to promote exports; Secondly, to accelerate the development of aquatic products processing industry and continuously extend and broaden the aquatic products industry chain; finally, we should deeply analyze regional differences and pay more attention to exports to developing countries.