中国畜产品出口贸易效率及潜力研究——以“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家为例

STUDY ON THE EFFICIENCY AND POTENTIAL OF CHINA'S ANIMAL PRODUCT EXPORT TRADE——TAKING THE COUNTRIES ALONG THE SILK ROAD ENONOMIC BELT AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  畜产品出口  贸易潜力  贸易效率  丝绸之路经济带  中国

Key words:  animal products export  trade potential  trade efficiency  silk road economic belt  China

摘要:

目的 文章分析了中国对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家畜产品出口贸易效率及贸易潜力，以挖掘贸易潜力，推进双边畜产品贸易发展和畜牧产业合作。方法 运用2001—2020年面板数据构建随机前沿引力模型，测度中国对沿线国家畜产品贸易效率及潜力，并对经济规模、对外投资、地理位置等影响因素进行实证分析。结果 中国与沿线国家的经济发展水平、中国对外投资、是否加入WTO都对中国畜产品出口沿线国家有显著正向促进作用，而沿线国家的政治稳定程度和畜牧业发展水平则对中国畜产品出口该地区有抑制作用。结论 中国对沿线国家畜产品出口的贸易效率极不平衡，对亚欧经济带国家的出口效率远高于中亚及环中亚经济带；畜产品出口贸易潜力从高到依次为环中亚经济带、中亚经济带和亚欧经济带，其中，对亚美尼亚、哈萨克斯坦、阿富汗和伊朗等中西亚国家的畜产品市场潜力极大。我国应积极推进经济走廊的建设，完善自身贸易环境，以在“一带一路”倡议下提高中国畜产品出口贸易效率，释放贸易潜力，推动双边贸易的有效发展。

Abstract:

The article analyzes the efficiency and potential of China's animal products export trade to the countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" in order to tap the trade potential and promote bilateral animal products trade development and animal husbandry industry cooperation. Using the panel data from 2001 to 2020, a random forward gravitational model was constructed to measure the efficiency and potential of China's trade in livestock products in countries along the route, and make an empirical analysis of factors such as economic scale, foreign investment and geographical location. The level of economic development of China and the countries along the route, China's foreign investment and accession to the WTO had significant positive effects on the countries along China's livestock exports, while the degree of political stability and animal husbandry development of the countries along the route had a dampening effect on China's livestock exports to the region. In summary, the export trade potential of livestock products is from high to central Asian economic belt, Central Asian economic belt and Asia-Europe economic belt, among which the market potential of livestock products for Armenia, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Iran is great. China should actively promote the construction of economic corridors and improve its own trade environment in order to improve the efficiency of China's livestock export trade under the Belt and Road Initiative, release trade potential and promote the effective development of bilateral trade.