我国鸡蛋价格波动传导的影响因素分析——基于非对称的研究视角

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE EGG PRICE VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION IN CHINA——BASED ON AN ASYMMETRICAL RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE

关键词:  鸡蛋价格  价格波动  滚动回归  成本价格  替代品价格  非对称传导

Key words:  egg price  price volatility  rolling regression  cost price  price of substitute  asymmetric transmission

摘要:

目的 文章采用鸡蛋价格的周度批发和零售数据，从成本、替代品两个维度探讨鸡蛋价格波动的影响因素和非对称传导特征。方法 通过滚动回归的方式探讨非对称传导特征的动态变化，并进一步探讨了鸡蛋批零价格之间的相互影响和非对称传导特点。结果 成本、替代品价格变动对与鸡蛋批零价格具有正向影响和非对称特征，但在静态的线性回归模型中并不明显。鸡蛋批发价格受成本价格变动的影响更大，而零售价格受替代品价格变动的影响更大。在动态的滚动回归模型下，成本、替代品价格对鸡蛋价格波动具有十分明显的时变非对称特征，但这种非对称传导特征并不一致。鸡蛋批发价格早期对零售价格具有正向的非对称传导，但近年来趋向于对称传导。鸡蛋零售价格对批发价格总体具有负向的非对称传导特征，零售价格下降对批发价格的影响更大。结论 需要建立蛋鸡产业成本—价格监测预警系统，充分发挥产业技术平台、行业协会、学会等研究机构在生产决策中的指导作用。不断完善鸡蛋供应链建设，增强调控与监管政策的灵活性与创新性。

Abstract:

This article used the data of weekly wholesale and retail egg prices to explore the influencing factors and asymmetric transmission features of egg price volatility from the two dimensions of cost and substitutes. The dynamic changes of asymmetric transmission features were explored through rolling regression, and the interaction between the wholesale and retail prices of eggs and the features of asymmetric transmission were further discussed. The changes in cost and the prices of substitutes had positive effects on the wholesale and retail price of eggs and showed asymmetric features, but they were not significant in the static linear regression model. The wholesale prices of eggs were more affected by changes in cost prices, while the retail prices were more affected by changes in the prices of substitutes. Under the dynamic rolling regression model, the cost and the prices of substitutes relative to the egg price volatility displayed significant time-varying asymmetric features, but such asymmetric transmission features were not consistent. In early years, a positive asymmetric transmission had been observed in the wholesale prices of eggs relative to the retail prices, but in recent years it turned to be symmetric transmission. A negative asymmetric transmission feature as a whole was found in the retail prices of eggs relative to the wholesale prices, and the reduction in the retail prices had a greater impact on the wholesale prices. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a cost-price monitoring and early warning system for the layer industry and give full play to the guiding role of research institutions, such as industrial technology platforms, industry associations, and societies, in making production decisions. It needs to make continuous improvements in building the egg supply chain, and boost the flexibility and innovation of control and regulation policies.