水禽养殖业地理集聚的影响因素及空间效应分析

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS AND SPATIAL EFFECTS OF GEOGRAPHICAL AGGLOMERATION OF WATERFOWL INDUSTRY

关键词:  水禽养殖  地理集聚  空间计量  空间效应  影响因素

Key words:  waterfowl industry  geographic agglomeration  spatial measurement  spatial effect  influencing factors

摘要:

目的 从资源禀赋、经济发展水平、市场与交通条件、水禽养殖基础和环境规制五个方面分析水禽养殖业地理集聚的影响因素，厘清水禽养殖产业空间变动情况，促进水禽养殖产业合理布局。方法 文章基于2010—2019年的相关统计数据，首先运用产业布局指数、区位基尼系数和Moran's I指数阐述21省（市、自治区）水禽养殖产业集聚状况，然后构建空间计量模型分析水禽养殖产业集聚的影响因素及其空间效应。结果 （1）中国水禽养殖业地理集聚特征明显，形成了两大水禽养殖带，产业布局表现出“东退西进，北向南移”的空间演变特征；（2）本地区土地资源、城镇化水平、肉鸭产值以及邻近地区土地资源、工资性收入比例、交通通达性、环境规制强度对当地水禽养殖产业集聚有显著影响；（3）工资性收入比例、交通通达性、农民固定资产投资能力以及环境规制强度存在明显空间溢出效应。结论 发展水禽养殖产业应充分考虑其相关性和外溢性，既要提高养殖用地供应、城镇化水平、工资性收入比例，改善交通条件，增强农民固定资产投资能力，也要充分考虑环境规制的抑制作用。

Abstract:

The factors influencing the geographical agglomeration of the waterfowl industry were analyzed from five aspects: resource endowment, economic development level, market and traffic conditions, waterfowl industry foundation and environmental regulation. This analysis aims to clarify the spatial changes in the waterfowl industry and promote the rational layout of the waterfowl industry. Based on the relevant statistical data from 2010 to 2019, this paper first expounded on the agglomeration of the waterfowl industry in 21 provinces（cities, autonomous regions） through the industrial layout index, location Gini coefficient and Moran's I index. This study subsequently constructed a spatial econometric model to analyze the influencing factors and spatial effects of waterfowl industry agglomeration. The results were listed as follows. (1) The geographical agglomeration characteristics of China's waterfowl industry were conspicuous, forming two waterfowl breeding belts. Moreover, the industrial layout showed the spatial evolution characteristics of "retreat from the East to the West and move from the North to the South". (2) Land resources, urbanization level, meat duck output value, land resources in adjacent areas, wage income ratio, traffic accessibility and environmental regulation intensity all exerted a substantial impact on the agglomeration of waterfowl industry in this region. (3) The proportion of wage income, traffic accessibility, farmers' investment capacity in fixed assets, and environmental regulation intensity had marked spatial spillover effects. Therefore, the development of the waterfowl industry should fully take its relevance and spillover into account. We should improve the supply of breeding land, the level of urbanization, and the proportion of wage income. Additionally, the traffic conditions should be improved, and farmers' ability to invest in fixed assets should be honed while fully considering the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation.