中国粮食耕作面积与农用化学品投入的时空协同分析

ANALYSIS ON THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL SYNERGY OF GRAIN CULTIVATING AREA AND AGROCHEMICAL INPUTS IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食耕作面积  农用化学品  重心  耦合协调  时空协同

Key words:  grain cultivating area  agrochemical inputs  center of gravity model  coupling coordination degree  spatio-temporal synergy

摘要:

目的 耕地保护是中国的基本国策，也是粮食安全的重要保障。耕地总量动态平衡是落实耕地保护政策的具体形式，这也造成耕地向欠发达地区转移。在此背景下，农用化学品投入也有向经济欠发达地区、特别是西部地区转移的风险，加剧西部生态脆弱区环境保护压力。然而，目前研究还鲜有这方面的报道，特别缺乏对粮食耕作面积与相应农用化学品投入间时空协同关系的分析。方法 文章基于2000—2019年省级粮食耕作面积和用于粮食生产的农用化学品投入（化肥、农药、地膜和农用柴油）数据，利用重心模型、标准差椭圆和耦合协调度模型，对全国以及东、中、西部地区粮食耕作面积和农用化学品投入的时空协同特征进行分析。结果 2000—2019年中国粮食耕作面积和用于粮食生产的农用化学品投入重心整体向西北或西部移动，其中地膜投入重心移动速度最快，重心迁移速度大小依次为：地膜（11.16 km/年）>农用化肥（5.95 km/年）>粮食耕作面积（5.18 km/年）>农药（4.01 km/年）>农用柴油（3.67 km/年）；全国粮食耕作面积与地膜、化肥、农药、柴油的耦合协调度整体呈上升态势。结论 随着粮食耕作面积重心的西移，农用化学品的重心也发生了西移，地膜、农用化肥投入重心移动速度甚至超过粮食耕作面积，且未来有进一步加重的趋势，给西部生态保护带来新的挑战。该研究有望为中国农用化学品的合理投入和生态保护、耕地保护政策的制定提供理论参考。

Abstract:

The central government attaches great importance to the protection of cultivated land as a basic national policy and an important guarantee for food security. The dynamic balance of total cultivated land is a specific form of implementing the policy of cultivated land protection, which also results in the transfer of cultivated land to underdeveloped areas. In this context, there is also the risk of agrochemical inputs being transferred to economically underdeveloped areas, especially the western region, which intensifies the pressure on environmental protection in the ecologically fragile western region. However, there are few reports on this aspect, especially the lack of analysis of the spatio-temporal synergistic relationship between the grain cultivating area and corresponding agrochemical inputs. Based on the data of provincial grain cultivating area and agrochemical inputs (fertilizer, pesticide, mulching film and agricultural diesel) used for grain production from 2000 to 2019, this paper used the center of gravity model, the standard deviation ellipse and the coupling coordination degree model to analyze the synergy characteristics of the spatio-temporal changes of the grain cultivating area and agrochemical inputs used for grain production throughout the country and the eastern, central and western regions. The results showed that from 2000 to 2019, the center of gravity of the country's grain cultivating area and agrochemical inputs used for grain production moved to the northwest or west as a whole, of which the center of gravity of mulching film input moved the fastest, and the migration speed of the center of gravity was in order: mulching film(11.16 km/year)>fertilizer(5.95 km/year)>grain cultivating area(5.18 km/year)>pesticide(4.01 km/year)>agricultural diesel(3.67 km/year). And the coupling coordination degree of the national grain cultivating area with mulching film, fertilizer, pesticide, and diesel was on the rise. In summary, with the westward shift of the center of gravity of the grain cultivating area, the center of gravity of agrochemical inputs has also moved westward, and the center of gravity of mulching film and fertilizer input even moves faster than the grain cultivating area, and will further increase in the future, bringing new challenges to ecological protection in the west. This study is expected to provide theoretical reference for the rational input of agrochemical inputs and the formulation of ecological protection and cultivated land protection policies in the country.