吉林省耕地利用碳排放测度及其与粮食生产脱钩分析

MEASUREMENT OF CARBON EMISSION FROM CULTIVATED LAND USE AND ANALYSIS OF ITS DECOUPLING FROM GRAIN PRODUCTION IN JILIN PROVINCE

关键词:  耕地利用  碳排放  粮食产量  脱钩模型  空间回归模型

Key words:  arable land use  carbon emissions  grain production  decoupling model  spatial regression model

摘要:

目的 通过分析吉林省县域耕地利用碳排放时空变化、碳排放结构、碳排放空间分布、脱钩效应以及碳排放驱动因素，以期从耕地低碳利用角度，为吉林省农业高质量发展和制定减排政策提供科学参考。方法 文章运用系数法，计算2000—2020年吉林省47个县域单元的耕地利用碳排放量；采用Tapio脱钩模型，分析耕地利用碳排放与粮食产量之间的脱钩特征；利用空间回归模型，分析耕地利用碳排放的驱动因素。结果 （1）吉林省县域耕地利用碳排放时空变化特征：2000—2016年吉林省耕地利用碳排放量增长，2016—2020年开始缓慢下降；碳排放结构方面，碳排放量从大到小分别是化肥、翻耕、灌溉、农用柴油、农膜和农药；碳排放空间分布呈现西高东低的格局。（2）耕地利用碳排放与粮食生产脱钩特征：呈现强脱钩和弱脱钩特征的县域数量增多，呈现强负脱钩和扩张性负脱钩特征的县域数量减少；吉林省东部地区的县域脱钩特征逐渐优于西部地区，吉林省整体县域的脱钩特征朝着理想状态发展。（3）耕地利用碳排放量驱动因素分析结果表明：人均农业GDP、农村用电量、农业机械化程度和化肥施用强度因素对耕地利用碳排放量为正向驱动，城镇化率对耕地利用碳排放量为负向驱动。结论 重点关注吉林省西部地区和中部地区县域单元的碳减排路径，提高农用品投入效率，粮食生产端和保障端采取碳减排措施，推进农业节能减排，走耕地低碳利用和粮食安全生产道路。

Abstract:

This study aims to provide scientific reference for agricultural high-quality development and emission reduction policies of Jilin province from the perspective of low carbon utilization of cultivated land. To achieve this goal, the spatial-temporal variation of carbon emission, carbon emission structure, spatial distribution of carbon emission, decoupling effect and carbon emission drivers from arable land utilization in county units of Jilin province were comprehensively analyzed. The coefficient method was applied to calculate the carbon emission from arable land utilization in 47 county units of Jilin province from 2000 to 2020. The Tapio decoupling model was applied to analyze the decoupling characteristics between carbon emission from arable land utilization and grain yield. The spatial regression model was applied to analyze the driving factors of carbon emission from arable land utilization. Results were indicated as follows. (1) The characteristics of spatial-temporal change of carbon emission from cropland use in the county of Jilin province: carbon emission from cropland use in Jilin province increased from 2000 to 2016 and slowly decreased from 2016 to 2020. The descending order of carbon emission was fertilizer, ploughing, irrigation, agricultural diesel, agricultural film and pesticides. The spatial distribution of carbon emission presented the high in the west and the low in the east. (2) Decoupling characteristics of carbon emission from arable land utilization and grain production: the number of counties increased with the characteristics of strong decoupling and weak decoupling characteristics; the number of counties decreased with the characteristics of strong negative decoupling and expansive negative decoupling; the decoupling characteristics of counties in the eastern part of Jilin province gradually superior to those in the western part, and the decoupling characteristics of the whole counties in Jilin province oriented the ideal state. (3) The driver analysis of carbon emission from arable land use showed that the factors of agricultural GDP per capita, rural electricity consumption, degree of agricultural mechanization and fertilizer application intensity were positive drivers of carbon emissions from arable land use, and the urbanization rate was a negative driver of carbon emissions from arable land use. All in all, it is necessary to focus on the carbon emission reduction path of county units in the western and central regions of Jilin province, improve the efficiency of agricultural supplies inputs, take carbon emission reduction measures at the food production end and the security end, promote agricultural energy conservation and emission reduction, and take the path of low carbon utilization of cropland and food security production.