基于熵权TOPSIS模型的中国粮食安全评价研究

RESEARCH ON THE EVALUATION OF CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY BASED ON ENTROPY WEIGHT TOPSIS MODEL

关键词:  粮食安全  评价  指标体系  熵权TOPSIS模型  政策启示

Key words:  food security  evaluation  indicator system  entropy weight TOPSIS model  policy implications

摘要:

目的 粮食安全事关经济健康发展、社会和谐稳定，是防范和化解系统性风险，维护国家安全的重要保障。对粮食安全发展水平进行评价研究是准确把握我国粮食安全发展现状、合理制定国家粮食安全相关政策措施的手段。方法 随着我国进入新发展阶段，国家粮食安全被赋予新的时代内涵和新的发展目标。文章以我国粮食安全在新发展阶段所呈现出来的内涵和目标为导向，从供给能力、供给结构、绿色发展、经济效益以及基础支撑五个方面出发，构建了包括25个具体评价指标的粮食安全评价体系，并建立熵权TOPSIS模型对我国粮食安全发展水平的演变和现状进行评价研究。结果 进入21世纪，我国粮食安全水平呈现出先下降后上升的发展态势，且对绿色发展、经济效益和基础支撑的重视程度逐年提升；提升我国粮食安全水平受到资源状况、科技水平、供给结构等因素的制约。结论 保障和提升我国粮食安全水平，需要重点从耕地资源保护和利用、粮食科技支撑、国内外市场与资源整合等方面发力。

Abstract:

Food security is instrumental to achieving healthy economic development, social harmony and stability, and is an important guarantee for preventing and resolving systemic risks and maintaining national security. Evaluation research on the development level of food security is a means to accurately grasp the current situation of China's food security development and reasonably formulate national food security-related policies and measures. As China enters a new stage of development, national food security is given a new connotation of the times and new development goals. Based on the connotation and goals presented by China's food security in the new development stage, this study constructed a food security evaluation system including 25 specific evaluation indicators covering five aspects: supply capacity, supply structure, green development, economic efficiency, and basic support, and established an entropy-weight TOPSIS model to evaluate the evolution and current situation of China's food security development level. Entering the new century, China's food security level showed a development trend of first declining and then rising, and the importance of green development, economic efficiency and basic support increased year by year, and the enhancement of China's food security level was constrained by factors such as resource status, science and technology level, and supply structure. Therefore, to ensure and improve the level of food security in China, we need to focus on the protection and utilization of arable land resources, technology support, domestic and foreign markets and resource integration.