中国南方肉牛生产空间关联分析及产业发展路径研究

SPATIAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PATH OF BEEF CATTLE PRODUCTION IN SOUTH CHINA

关键词:  肉牛生产  空间关联  引力模型  社会网络分析  统一大市场

Key words:  beef cattle production  spatial correlation  the modified gravity model  social network analysis  unified national production market

摘要:

目的 为了厘清中国南方地区肉牛生产的空间关联关系，挖掘南方地区牛肉增产潜力，探索统一的生产大市场建设路径。方法 文章基于2008—2020年肉牛生产数据，采用修正后的引力模型构建了南方地区15个省（市、区）的肉牛生产空间关联关系，运用社会网络分析法刻画了各地在肉牛生产空间关联网络中的地位和传导方向。结果 （1）南方地区肉牛生产具有较强的空间关联性，其关联关系趋于稳定，但仍有巨大发展空间。（2）整体来看，关联网络中，安徽、贵州、四川和云南扮演“中心行动者”的角色；湖南和江西扮演“中介行动者”的角色，上海、福建、浙江和江苏扮演“边缘行动者”的角色。（3）生产板块已初具规模，贵州、云南、广西、四川和湖南是动能传递的终点，是发展南方地区肉牛生产的钥匙。结论 未来南方肉牛生产大市场建设应在大力发展西南肉牛优势养殖区的基础上，加快建设湖南和江西的基础设施，充分发挥其地理区位的优越性和中介功能。加强省际交流，改良牛种，保障溢出板块的生产动能，完善双向溢出板块的连接功能，挖掘接收板块的生产潜力，布局完善的生产功能区。

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to clarify the spatial correlation of beef cattle production in southern China, tap the potential of increasing production, and explore a unified path for the construction of a national production market. Based on the beef cattle production data from 2008 to 2020, a modified gravity model was used to calculate the spatial correlation of beef cattle production in 15 southern provinces, and a social network analysis (SNA) method was used to investigate the structural characteristics of the special correlation network of beef cattle production in each region. The results were listed as follows. (1) The beef cattle production in southern China had a strong and stable spatial correlation, but there was still a great room for development. (2) Overall, Anhui, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Yunnan provinces played the role of "central actors", Hunan and Jiangxi provinces played the role of "intermediary actors" and Shanghai, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces played the role of "marginal actors". (3) The beef cattle production block had begun to take shape, and Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, and Hunan were the end points of the transmission of production energy and the key to the development of beef cattle production in southern China. In the future, the construction of a large beef cattle production market in the south should be based on vigorously developing the superior beef cattle breeding areas in Southwest China, and it speed up the construction of infrastructure in Hunan and Jiangxi, and take full advantage to the advantages and intermediary functions of their geographical location. Meanwhile, it should strengthen inter-provincial exchanges, improve cattle breeds, guarantee the production momentum of spillover block, improve the connection function of two-way spillover block, tap the production potential of beneficial block, and lay out a complete production functional block.