西藏高原县域尺度农业绿色发展水平综合评价——以白朗县为例

A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT AT THE COUNTY LEVEL ON THE TIBETAN PLATEAU——A CASE STUDY IN BAINANG COUNTY

关键词:  农业绿色发展  评价指标  层次分析法  驱动因素  西藏高原

Key words:  agricultural green development  evaluation index  analytic hierarchy process  driving factors  Tibetan Plateau

摘要:

目的 推进农业绿色发展是实现农业可持续发展的有效途径，为客观了解西藏高原农业绿色发展水平，探讨农业绿色发展的驱动因素，为高原农业绿色发展研究提供参考。方法 文章以白朗县为典型县域案例，从农业生产、农业资源、农业环境、农业生态和农民生活五方面，选取17个指标系统构建评价体系，采用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重值，基于统计数据、遥感数据和调研数据评价2016—2020年白朗县农业绿色发展水平，并利用两阶段最小二乘法分析影响农业绿色发展水平的驱动因素。结果 （1）2016—2020年白朗县农业绿色发展水平总体呈现上升趋势，由2016年的0.102 7提高到了2020年的0.233 9，增长约2.28倍。其中，农业生产、农业环境和农民生活水平逐年提升，但农业资源水平2018年后却持续下降。（2）多元回归模型分析驱动因素表明农林水事务性支出与农业绿色发展水平存在显著的负效应（P<0.001），随着农林水事务性支出的降低，农业绿色发展水平会提高。结论 白朗县农业绿色发展水平整体呈现良好的发展态势，农业生产和农民生活方面贡献较大，但农业资源方面仍是绿色发展的短板，因此今后白朗县农业绿色发展还需注重农业资源利用。

Abstract:

Promoting agricultural green development is an effective approach to achieving sustainable development goals. This research is intends to objectively understand the status and explore the driving factors of agricultural green development in the Tibetan Plateau, so as to provide a basis for research on agricultural green development. Taking Bainang county as a case study, this study constructed an evaluation index, which consisted of 17 indicators from 5 perspectives of agricultural production, agricultural resource, agricultural environment, agricultural ecology and living level of the farmer, used the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the evaluation index, and assessed the level of agricultural green development from 2016 to 2020 based on the statistical data, remote sensing, and survey data, then examined the driving factors of agricultural green development by adopting the two-stage least square. The results were indicated as follows.The level of agricultural green development showed an increasing trend from 2016 to 2020 in Bainang county, the index improved from 0.102 7 in 2016 to 0.233 9 in 2020, with 2.28 times. In particular, agricultural production, agricultural environment, and farmers' living level improved year by year. But the standard of agricultural resources had gradually declined since the year 2018, which maybe because of the decline in cropland area. The analysis of driving factors using the multiple regression model explained that the fiscal expenditure in agriculture had a significant negative effect on the level of agricultural green development (P<0.001), and the agricultural green development level would increase with the decrease of fiscal expenditure on agriculture. It is concluded that the level of agricultural green development in Bainang county showes a positive trend owing to the contribution of agricultural production and the living level of farmers, but agricultural resource still poses a challenge to agricultural green development, therefore the development should focus on agriculture resource usage in the future.