农民合作社减贫的农户收入效应及其异质性——基于内生转换回归模型的实证分析

FARMERS’ INCOME EFFECT AND HETEROGENEITY IN POVERTY REDUCTION BY FARMERS’ COOPERATIVES——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON ENDOGENOUS SWITCHING REGRESSION MODEL

关键词:  农民合作社  减贫  收入效应  欠发达地区  内生转换回归模型

Key words:  farmers' cooperatives  poverty alleviation  income effect  less developed area  endogenous switching regression model

摘要:

目的 农民合作社具有“天然的”益贫特征，在精准扶贫时期发挥了重要作用，研究合作社减贫的农户收入效应及其异质性对于完善和优化合作社产业减贫政策，健全贫困治理长效机制，助力乡村振兴具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于2018年云南、贵州、陕西和甘肃4省欠发达地区1 551份农户的调研数据，利用内生转换回归模型（ESRM），通过构建“反事实”分析框架，实证分析了合作社对农户所产生的收入效应及其异质性特征。结果 （1）与未入社的农户相比，入社为其家庭总收入带来了约32.26%的收入增幅。合作社对非贫困农户、高收入分位数农户、中青年农户的减贫增收作用最明显。（2）除了对贫困农户财政性收入影响不显著外，合作社对不同贫困属性农户其他不同来源的收入均有提高，对贫困农户的农业经营性收入影响最明显，对非贫困农户的财产性收入影响最明显。（3）土地面积、生产性资产值、人情往来支出、户主受教育年限、是否参加专业培训、建档立卡户、是否有合作社、主要地理环境均显著正向影响农户入社决策；学生数量显著负向影响农户入社决策。结论 在积极培育和发展合作社，鼓励合作社由“重数量轻质量、重服务轻规范”向高质量发展转型的同时，应强化合作社与脱贫户的利益关联度，重视农户人力资本的开发与社会资本的建构。

Abstract:

Farmers' cooperatives have the natural feature of benefiting the poor, and play an important role in the targeted poverty alleviation period. The study on the income effect of farmers and its heterogeneity in poverty reduction by cooperatives is of great practical significance for optimizing the poverty reduction policies of cooperatives, perfecting a long-term mechanism of poverty governance, and helping the rural revitalization. Based on a survey in 2018, covering 1 551 farmers from four less developed provinces, including Yunnan, Guizhou, Shaanxi and Gansu, this research empirically analyzed the income effect of cooperatives on farmers and its heterogeneity by using the endogenous switching regression model and constructing a counterfactual analysis framework. The results were showed as follows. (1) Rural households joined in farmers' cooperatives embraced about 32.26% increase in total income, compared with those who were not members. Cooperatives had the most significant effect on poverty reduction and income increase for non-poor farmers, high income quintile farmers and middle-young people farmers. (2) Except for the insignificant impact on the financial income of poor farmers, cooperatives had increased the income of farmers with different poverty attributes from other sources. The agricultural operating income of poor farmers and the property income of non-poor farmers embraced the most obvious increase, while there was an insignificant impact on the financial income of poor farmers. (3) There were several issues positively effecting on farmers' willing to join the cooperatives, including land area, productive capital output value, human expenditure, years of education of householders, whether to participate in professional training, registered poor households, whether the village had cooperatives, and the main geographical environment, while the number of students had a significant negative impact on farmers' decision-making. It is necessary to strengthen the interest correlation between cooperatives and poverty-stricken households, and attach importance to the development of human capital and the construction of social capital of farmers while actively cultivating and developing cooperatives and encouraging them to transform from "emphasizing quantity over quality and service over specification" to high-quality development.