广西耕地“非粮化”时空演变及影响因素研究

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF NON-GRAIN CULTIVATED LAND IN GUANGXI

关键词:  耕地“非粮化”  粮食安全  时空格局  影响因素  广西

Key words:  “non-grain” cultivated land  food security  spatial-temporal pattern  influencing factors  Guangxi

摘要:

目的 防止耕地“非粮化”、稳定粮食生产是我国重要战略部署。探究广西耕地“非粮化”时空演变特征及其影响因素，为西南经济欠发达地区差异化管控和引导耕地利用提供参考。方法 文章以广西为例，采用综合评价法对2003—2019年广西耕地“非粮化”水平进行综合测度，利用空间自相关模型进行耕地“非粮化”空间集聚效应分析，并运用地理加权回归模型进一步探究耕地“非粮化”区域差异的影响因素。结果 （1） 2003—2019年广西耕地“非粮化”程度总体呈波动上升趋势，共经历3个阶段。（2） 广西耕地“非粮化”空间上整体呈现出“西南高—西北低”格局，并表现出显著空间正相关，“非粮化”现象以广西西南部崇左市最为突出。（3） 耕地地势起伏度、年降水量、第一产业比重、土地生产率和城镇化率等8个因素是形成广西耕地“非粮化”空间格局差异的主要影响因素。结论 耕地“非粮化”程度及其影响因素具有空间差异性，基于此制定差异化管控对策，对缓解耕地“非粮化”，促进耕地有效管护具有重要意义。

Abstract:

It is an important national strategy for China to stabilize its grain production by controlling the “non-grain” cultivated land. To explore the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of "non-grain" cultivated land in Guangxi will provide references for differentially controlling and guiding the cultivated land use in economically underdeveloped areas, like Southwest China. Taking Guangxi as an example, this paper used comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the “non-grain” level of cultivated land use from 2003 to 2019, and adopted spatial autocorrelation model to analyze the spatial agglomeration effects of “non-grain” cultivated land, then used geographically weighted regression model to further explore the factors that affected the regional differences of “non-grain” cultivated land. The results showed that: (1) The “non-grain” level of cultivated land use in Guangxi showed a fluctuating upward trend with three stages from 2003 to 2019. (2) The “non-grain” phenomenon showed a spatial pattern described as "high in the southwest but low in the northwest" with significant positive spatial correlations. Chongzuo city in the southwest of Guangxi was of the worst situation. (3) Eight factors, such as topographic relief, annual precipitation, proportion of primary industry, land productivity and urbanization rate, were the main influencing factors for the spatial pattern of “non-grain” cultivated land in Guangxi. In summary, there are spatial differences between the degree of "non grain" cultivated land and its influencing factors. Thus, it is of great significance to develop differentiated control strategies to alleviate the “non-grain” use of cultivated land, so as to promote the effective management and protection of cultivated land.