产销平衡区粮食安全评价及形势分析——以甘肃省为例

ANALYSIS ON THE EVALUATION AND SITUATION OF FOOD SECURITY IN SUPPLYING-CONSUMPTION BALANCE REGION——TAKING GANSU PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  产销平衡区  粮食安全  供需平衡  评价  甘肃省

Key words:  food supplying and consumption balance area  food security  supplying and demanding balance  evaluation  Gansu province

摘要:

目的 粮食安全是社会稳定、经济发展的基础和前提，评估粮食安全状况、分析粮食安全形势，可为科学选择新时期粮食安全战略路径、推进乡村振兴战略实施，促进经济持续发展、构建生态屏障提供决策依据。方法 文章以粮食产销省份甘肃省为区域，选择粮食产消、粮食供需、口粮保障、粮食储备、粮食流通和粮食生产等6个指标，系统评价2010—2020年区域粮食安全状况；运用产销平衡区粮食安全预警模型，评估近10年甘肃省粮食储备、流通和供需等结构体系的安全性；采用GM (1, 1)模型和线性回归组合模型预测粮食生产趋势，评估近10年甘肃省粮食生产的稳定性。结果 （1）甘肃省粮食自给率高，人均粮食生产占有量达到了FAO要求的安全水准以上，粮食储备充裕并逐步向合理的储备规模调整，省内外粮食购进和外销保持稳定的流通态势，粮食总供求个别年份出现短缺轻警，总体保持紧平衡态势。（2）2021—2030年甘肃省粮食产量趋势增加，变化范围在1 159万～1 335万t，粮食生产实际产量高于趋势产量，但粮食生产波动指数年际间变幅较大，粮食生产的稳定性欠佳，且主要的口粮作物小麦呈隐性减产态势。结论 （1）政策支持、财政资金扶持和技术进步共同作用，保障了甘肃省粮食供应链安全；生态、气候、耕作条件等诸多因素的影响和制约，对科技突破、农业机械化、防灾减灾能力的提升提出了更高挑战和要求。（2）甘肃省作为经济欠发达的产销平衡区省份，尤其需要优化仓储布局、提升粮食物流能力、强化应急保障能力，保障地域优势不明显的边缘地区、粮食生产能力薄弱的少数民族地区和寒旱区、贫困区的粮食安全。（3）未来甘肃省必须在确保“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全的”前提下，发展现代丝路寒旱特色产业，丰富绿色产品供给，协调发展农牧林草业，科学配置资源优势，提高蔬菜、水果、肉、蛋和奶等产品的供给能力，逐步实现由粮食质量安全向高标准食品安全转变。

Abstract:

Food security is the basis and premise of social stability and economic development. Evaluating and analyzing the situation of food security could provide a decision-making basis for scientifically selecting the strategic path of food security in the new period, promoting the implementation of rural revitalization strategy, promoting sustainable economic development and building ecological barrier. Taking Gansu province as a region, this paper selected six indicators of food production and consumption, food supply and demand, food ration guarantee, food reserve, food circulation and food production to systematically evaluate regional food security from 2010 to 2020, and evaluated the security of grain reserve, circulation, supply and demand structure system in Gansu province in recent 10 years by using the grain security early warning model in the production-marketing balance area, then predict grain production trend and evaluate the stability of grain production in Gansu province in recent 10 years by adopting GM (1,1) model and linear regression combined model. The results were showed as follows. (1) Gansu province had a high rate of grain self-sufficiency, the per capita share of grain production reached more than FAO security level, the abundant grain reserves had been gradually adjusted to a reasonable reserve scale, the purchase and export of grain inside and outside the province maintained a stable circulation situation, and the total grain supply and demand had been in short alarm in individual years, which had maintained a tight balance on the whole. (2) From 2021 to 2030, the grain output of Gansu province tended to increase, ranging from 11.59 million tons to 13.35 million tons. The actual output of grain production was higher than the trend output, but the fluctuation index of grain production varied greatly between years, the stability of grain production was poor, and the main ration crop wheat showed a hidden trend of yield reduction. In summary, policy support, financial support and technological progress work together to ensure the security of grain supply chain in Gansu province, and the influence and restriction of many factors such as ecology, climate and farming conditions put forward higher challenges and requirements for scientific and technological breakthroughs, agricultural mechanization and the improvement of disaster prevention and reduction capacity. As a province with underdeveloped production and marketing balance, Gansu province especially needs to optimize the storage layout, improve the grain logistics capacity, strengthen the emergency support capacity, and ensure the food security in marginal areas with less obvious regional advantages, ethnic minority areas with weak grain production capacity, cold and dry areas and poverty-stricken areas. In the future, Gansu province must, on the premise of ensuring "basic self-sufficiency of grains and absolute safety of rations", develop cold and drought characteristic industries on the modern silk road, enrich the supply of green products, coordinate the development of agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and grassland, scientifically allocate resource advantages, improve the supply capacity of vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs, milk and other products, and gradually realize the transformation from food quality and safety to high standard food safety.