全球粮食安全风险格局时空特征分析

ANALYSIS OF SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY RISKS

关键词:  粮食生产  粮食消费  粮食安全  相对风险  时空格局  空间分析

Key words:  grain production  grain consumption  grain security  relative risk  spatiotemporal patterns  spatial analysis

摘要:

目的 当前全球范围内公共安全事件频繁发生，严重影响了世界粮食生产和供应链，粮食安全系列问题由此引发学术界与政府部门广泛关注。贸易流通不稳定的背景下，科学分析全球粮食安全和风险格局时空特征对维护国家粮食安全以及保障全球经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。然而，以往研究缺乏对全球粮食安全和风险格局的长时序时空特征分析。文章通过结合粮食生产和消费数据对全球粮食安全和风险格局进行长时间序列研究，并探索全球粮食安全和风险格局时空规律。方法 基于1961—2017年全球各国粮食生产和消费统计数据，综合运用波动系数、重心分析、粮食短缺指数和相对资源承载力模型等分析方法，对全球粮食生产、消费、风险及相对风险格局进行了分析，探究了全球粮食安全和风险格局的时空规律。结果 （1）研究期间全球和中国粮食生产及消费呈显著上升趋势，疫情和蝗灾等重大突发事件会对粮食生产消费格局造成一定影响；（2）全球整体粮食安全总体从中等风险下降至低风险，中国粮食安全风险近60年持续降低，2017年处于低风险等级；（3）中国粮食资源承载力略高于全球平均水平，非洲、拉丁美洲以及东南亚地区粮食安全相对风险波动较大。结论 世界粮食安全受各类因素影响处在不断波动中，但总的趋势是人们的营养水平在不断提高，粮食产量在不断增长。研究发现可以为世界各国应对粮食危机制定合理粮食安全政策提供参考以及为我国粮食安全国情的稳定和粮食安全战略制定提供科学依据。

Abstract:

At present, public security incidents occur frequently around the world, which seriously affect the global grain production and supply chain. A series of grain security issues have aroused wide attention from academia and government departments. Under the background of unstable trade circulation, scientific analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of global grain security and risk pattern is of great significance for maintaining national grain security and ensuring the sustainable development of global economy and society. However, previous studies lack long-term spatio-temporal analysis of global grain security and risk patterns. By combining the data of grain production and consumption, this study explored the long-time series of global grain security and risk pattern, and the spatio-temporal rules of global grain security and risk pattern. To this end, the fluctuation coefficient, gravity center method, grain shortage index, and relative resources carrying capacity models in this study were adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of global grain production, consumption, risk and relative risk pattern based on the global grain production and consumption data from 1961 to 2017. The results were indicated as follows. (1) Global and Chinese grain production and consumption showed a significant upward trend during the study period, and major emergencies such as epidemic and locust plague would have a certain impact on global grain production and consumption pattern. (2) The overall risk of global grain security declined from medium to low. The risk of grain security in China had been decreasing for nearly 60 years, and in 2017, it was at a low risk level. (3) The carrying capacity of grain resources in China was slightly higher than the global average, and the relative risk of grain security in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia fluctuated greatly. Therefore，affected by various factors, global grain security is in constant fluctuation, but the general trend is that the public's nutrition level is improving and grain production is increasing. The findings of this study can provide scientific references for countries around the world to formulate rational grain security policies in response to grain crisis and provide scientific basis for the stability of China's grain security situation and the formulation of grain security strategy.